(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices were little changed and spot silver prices were firmer in late U.S. trading Monday, as fading October Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations supported metals while a stronger dollar and long-dated Treasury yields near multi-decade highs capped gold’s rebound. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,137.70 an ounce, down 0.05% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $60.900, up 1.04%.
North American equities closed higher as buyout activity and technology strength offset another rise in Treasury yields. The S&P 500 rose 51.23 points, or 0.7%, to 7,773.95, within 0.3% of its record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 90.94 points, or 0.2%, to 51,267.90. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 286.45 points, or 1.1%, to a record 27,477.31, while the Russell 2000 rose 14.24 points, or 0.5%, to 2,847.14.
European equities closed mostly higher, with France the regional outlier as fiscal concerns weighed on Paris-listed shares and the euro. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.36% to 633.62, Germany’s DAX gained 0.09% to 25,254.21, the U.K. FTSE 100 added 0.34% to 10,497.94 and Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.66% to 50,818.38. France’s CAC 40 fell 0.80% to 7,834.10.
Market positioning remains split between a weaker U.S. labor signal and persistent inflation pressure. Friday’s employment report showed September payrolls rising by just 29,000, the unemployment rate at 4.2%, average hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month and 3.0% from a year earlier, and July and August payrolls revised down by a combined 60,000. Monday’s September ISM services PMI eased to 54.9 from 55.4, but the prices index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, while employment returned to slight expansion at 50.1. Fed funds pricing put the probability of an October hike near 22% to 24%, down from about 70% last week, but December tightening risk remains live. The 10-year Treasury yield settled near 5.31%, its highest since April 2002, while the 30-year yield rose to the 5.66% area. The next rate-path tests are the September Fed minutes Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, weekly jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET and preliminary October consumer sentiment Friday at 10:00 a.m. ET. Softer labor or sentiment data would support gold by validating the payroll signal; firmer inflation expectations would keep the yield channel pointed against bullion.
The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains a supply-risk overhang, but Monday’s market impact was disinflationary at the margin as oil settled lower. Middle East crude exports rose above pre-war levels in four of the final seven days of September, the Group of Seven agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and Saudi Aramco cut November crude prices for Asian buyers to six-year lows. Those supply signals outweighed renewed vessel attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and continued disruption concerns tied to the U.S.-Iran war. Brent crude settled at $100.32 a barrel, down 1.9%, while WTI settled at $89.43, down 1.8%. Lower crude helped equities and silver by easing some inflation pressure, but the unresolved shipping-risk premium kept energy volatility, Fed pricing and safe-haven demand inside the gold trade.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading near $89.43 a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $100.32. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.3% area. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and on track for its highest close since April 2025. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,164.44 to $4,203.61 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,214.00 and then $4,238.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,101.35, with deeper downside targets at $4,073.00 and then $4,030.00. First resistance is seen at $4,164.44 and then at $4,203.61. First support is seen at $4,101.35 and then at $4,073.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.744 to $62.000 area, with a move above that zone targeting the 50-day moving average near $64.070 and then the $65.000 to $66.000 area. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $60.715, with deeper downside targets at $59.342 and then the $56.000 to $57.000 range. First resistance is seen at $61.744 and then at $62.000. Next support is seen at $60.715 and then at $59.342.
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