Hong Kong becomes Russia’s gold gateway to China as bullion flows shatter records

LBMA 2026: Central banks find new reasons to increase official gold reserves  

Oct 6 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a pause ​in the US Treasury yield's rally and a weaker dollar, while investors ‌awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting for fresh clues on its monetary policy outlook.Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,168.33 per ounce by 02:12 p.m. EDT (1812 GMT). US gold futures for ​December delivery settled 0.7% higher at $4,187.10. "We're seeing some safe haven demand (in gold) ​because of the turmoil in the French bond market and growing concerns ⁠about the US Treasury markets," said Jim Wyckoff, a market analyst at American Gold ​Exchange. US 10-year Treasury yields edged lower after climbing to a more than two-decade high ​on Monday, while the dollar eased from a one-year high, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies.Investors remain on edge about rising government debt levels and widening budget deficits across parts ​of the euro zone, particularly in France, pushing sovereign bond yields higher.Investors are ​now looking out for minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, due on Wednesday, to ‌gauge ⁠the possibility of further interest rate hikes this year.Markets have pared bets for a Fed rate hike this month after softer-than-expected job growth in September. Traders now see only a 22% chance of the Fed raising rates this month but are still pricing in ​an 84% probability of ​an increase in ⁠December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.Gold tends to lose its appeal to yield-bearing assets in a high-interest-rate environment.Meanwhile, oil prices fell ​as resilient Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile ​release eased ⁠supply concerns."Despite near-term headwinds, ongoing ETF buying and demand from discretionary investors continues to provide support for gold. We maintain our view that the yellow metal will move above $5,000 ⁠per ​ounce in 2027," analysts at TD Securities said in ​a note.Among other metals, silver rose 0.8% to $61.56, while platinum slid 1% to $1,704.85 and palladium was unchanged ​at $1,172.80.Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Joe Bavier, Alison Williams and Shailesh Kuber

Gold climbs as dollar, Treasury yields slip

WASHINGTON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The US trade deficit widened more than expected in August as imports jumped to a record high against the backdrop of robust domestic demand, keeping trade on track to again subtract from economic growth in the third quarter.The deterioration reported by the Commerce Department on ​Tuesday was despite President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports, which he has argued are meant to shrink the trade gap. The nation posted record goods trade deficits with at least three ‌countries, including Mexico. Economists have long argued that the US did not have the capacity to produce enough goods to meet its consumption needs. Some lowered their gross domestic product growth estimates for the July-September quarter."The administration's trade policies have largely been a failure, trade tariffs have done nothing to reduce America's reliance on the import of foreign-produced goods," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The cost of American labor is simply too high to produce goods here cheap enough for consumers to even think about purchasing. Even if US manufacturers were willing, the ​factories could not be built here fast enough to produce the goods that consumers depend on." The trade shortfall increased 13.7% to $105.6 billion, the largest since March 2025, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and ​Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the deficit would be $102.0 billion.The trade deficit was at $79.8 billion when Trump was elected for a second term in November ⁠2024. August's deterioration was flagged by data last week that showed an import-driven surge in the goods trade deficit, and part of the increase reflected higher prices.Domestic demand increased at its fastest pace in more than 3-1/2 years in the ​second quarter, reflecting robust consumer spending and business spending on equipment, mostly related to AI. The trend appears to have spilled over into the third quarter, with data last month showing strong consumer spending in August as well as orders and ​shipments of nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft.But businesses are relying on imports to meet demand. Imports increased 4.3% to an all-time high of $420.8 billion in August. Goods imports jumped 5.3% to $342.2 billion, partly due to businesses replenishing inventories, which have been drawn down for five straight quarters.They were boosted by a $9.1 billion increase in industrial supplies and materials, which include petroleum. Crude oil imports rose $3.3 billion while nonmonetary gold increased $3.1 billion. Nonmonetary gold imports and exports are excluded in the calculation of GDP.Capital goods imports soared $6.2 billion to a record high $146.4 billion, ​driven by semiconductors and other industrial machinery, reflecting the AI infrastructure buildout. Though imports of computer accessories decreased $1.6 billion, they totaled $158.5 billion in the first eight months of the year compared to $89.5 billion during the same period in 2025.TRADE SET TO ​WEIGH ON GDP GROWTHExports rose 1.4% to $315.2 billion. Goods exports increased 2.2% to $205.7 billion, reflecting a $6.3 billion rise in industrial supplies and materials, mostly nonmonetary gold, crude oil and fuel oil.Economists at Goldman Sachs said the rise in oil exports appeared to have ‌been driven largely ⁠by drawdowns in both commercial inventories and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rather than an increase in domestic production.Capital goods exports rose $1.3 billion, lifted by semiconductors and computers. But exports of civilian aircraft fell $1.0 billion. Consumer goods exports dropped $2.2 billion, pulled down by a $2.4 billion decline in pharmaceutical preparations.The goods trade deficit increased 10.3% to $136.6 billion in August. When adjusted for inflation, it widened $8.7 billion, or 8.2%, to $114.7 billion. Trade has subtracted from GDP for three straight quarters, and economists estimate it could cut as much as 2.5 percentage points from GDP in the third quarter.Goldman Sachs economists trimmed their third-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 3.1% annualized rate from a 3.4% pace. The economy grew at a 2.2% pace in ​the second quarter.In addition to being a drag on GDP ​growth, the trade deficit also has inflation implications ⁠as it underscores excess demand. Economists said it supported their expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again this year."The Fed had better pay good attention to all this excess demand stuff," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "Underlying the price shock from elevated energy prices, there is a demand-driven inflation challenge in the US ​economy. Energy prices are just an overlay onto that."The US central bank last month raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, ​its first hike in three years, ⁠and flagged further increases in borrowing costs ahead.Services imports rose less than $0.1 billion to $78.5 billion in August, amid a small gain in transport. Charges for the use of intellectual property fell as did travel.Exports of services also advanced by less than $0.1 billion to $109.5 billion. There were modest increases in charges for the use of intellectual property and other business services. Travel and financial services both declined.The nation had record goods trade shortfalls with Mexico, Vietnam and Malaysia. It maintained deficits with Taiwan, ⁠China, the European ​Union, South Korea and India among other trade partners. The shortfall with Canada jumped $4.1 billion, with strong growth in imports likely reflecting businesses front-loading orders ​to avoid higher tariffs. The US and Canada are locked in a trade war.The US, however, posted a record goods trade surplus with Belgium, while maintaining surpluses with the Netherlands, South and Central America, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Brazil, Australia and Saudi Arabia."Trade with Canada may remain ​volatile for a few months due to large swings in energy goods and as new tariffs come into effect amidst rising trade uncertainty," said Veronica Clark, an economist with Citigroup.Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci

US trade balance sinks deeper into the red as imports hit record high despite tariffs

Gold doesn’t have to be a ‘dead asset’: Tokenization could unlock utility and expand the market – LBMA 2026

TORONTO, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart on Tuesday as data showed Canada's trade surplus widening more than expected and ​after the greenback gave back some of its recent broad-based gains.The ‌loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.4220 per US dollar, or 70.32 US cents, after moving in a range of 1.4215 to 1.4282. On Monday, the currency touched an ​18-month low at 1.4293. Canada's trade surplus widened in August to C$4.2 billion ($2.94 ​billion) as exporters rushed to increase shipments to the US before ⁠President Donald Trump's new tariffs took effect. Economists had expected the surplus ​would expand to C$1.55 billion from an upwardly revised C$787 million."The loonie was ​largely on the defensive but it started to rally on the back of some of that trade surplus news. Plus, the US dollar was potentially a little overbought," said Rahim ​Madhavji, president at KnightsbridgeFX.com.The US dollar fell against a basket of major currencies as ​a pullback in French government bond yields cooled fears about strain in euro zone debt ‌markets ⁠and after oil prices fell.US crude oil futures were trading 0.3% lower at $89.19 a barrel as supply concerns eased due to increased Middle Eastern crude exports and an agreement by the Group of Seven countries to release emergency diesel ​and crude stockpiles.Canadian ​government bond yields ⁠edged lower across the curve, with the 10-year down 2 basis points at 3.932%.The gap between Quebec's 10-year yield and ​the yield on the equivalent government of Canada bond ​narrowed by ⁠5 basis points to 48 basis points after a separatist party won the province's election on Monday but fell short of a majority.Canadian employment data for September, due ⁠on ​Friday, could offer clues on the state of ​the domestic economy. Economists expect a jobs gain of 9,200 and the unemployment rate to edge up ​to 6.5% from 6.4% in August.Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Chris Reese

Canadian dollar rallies as trade surplus widens more than expected

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The amount of oil in storage that is accessible to the global market is running low, ‌industry executives said at a forum in London this week, making the market more fragile and putting upward pressure on prices.Governments and energy companies have drawn oil from stockpiles to alleviate pressure in a global oil market facing unprecedented supply disruptions this year due to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. "Less than ​6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain today, with the vast majority not practically available, so the system is ​already straining," Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Arabia's state oil company Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), said at the Energy ⁠Intelligence Forum in London.More than 1 billion barrels of oil have been released mainly from onshore commercial inventories since the start of ​this year's Middle East crisis, which was the last major tool in the box, Nasser said.The International Energy Agency, the West's oil watchdog ​and coordinator of its strategic oil reserves, is preparing to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel to help alleviate soaring diesel prices, but it is not clear if some of that total will include volumes from its record first 400 million barrel release in March that hadn't hit the market ​yet. "It took a lot of negotiations, but it is 100 million," Nasser said of the IEA decision. "Inventories are reaching a stress level. ​Only 10% or less is available, that's why they struggle with 100 million barrels."World oil demand is about 102 million barrels per day, according to ‌the IEA.SUPPLY ⁠RESILIENCE CUSHION IS SCARILY THINThe loss of the oil market's buffers has made the market more fragile, Chevron (CVX.N), CEO Mike Wirth said on Tuesday, adding that this has increased oil's price floor.Oil market turmoil will continue beyond next year, executives said at the conference on Monday, as it could take years to refill inventories on top of meeting global demand.Not all oil in storage is immediately usable because ​of operational factors like tank bottoms ​or oil sat in pipelines, ⁠as well as political factors like government rules dictating minimum levels of emergency stocks.There is huge demand to build additional inventories around the globe, Nasser added. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah ​said his company is aiming to build out storage domestically and at its overseas refineries.The world ​is reliant on ⁠the seaborne oil exports escaping the Middle East "to keep things in balance as we go through winter, because there aren't any more inventories to drain in the West," the CEO of commodities trader Vitol Russell Hardy said.Stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve are at their lowest ⁠since October ​1982, according to data from the Department of Energy.Natural gas inventories are also ​depleted, making prices vulnerable to spikes. A bad winter could bring about a "bloodbath" in the gas market in the first quarter of 2027 if storage hits minimal levels, ​Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik said.Reporting by Robert Harvey, Stephanie Kelly and Shadia Nasralla in London, editing by Alex Lawler and Nick Zieminski

The world has nearly burned through its oil stockpile buffer, executives say

Central banks add 39 net tonnes of gold in August with China, Uzbekistan and Poland leading purchases – World Gold Council

Global gold market liquidity is deep enough to support the growth of emerging Asian hubs alongside established Western trading centres, representatives from Hong Kong and Singapore told a precious metals conference on Tuesday.The two Asian financial centres are expanding their gold trading ecosystems, prompting worries in the West that this would mean direct competition for liquidity with the London bullion market, the world’s largest for over-the-counter trade, overseen by the London Bullion Market Association.This is especially focused on Hong Kong with its connection to mainland China, the world’s top metals consumer. The territory plans to launch the first central clearing and settlement system for gold in early 2027 and aims to have more than 2,000 metric tons of gold storage capacity within two years.“We are positioning ourselves as a super connector and also a super value adder,” Christopher Hui, secretary for financial services and the treasury in the Hong Kong government, told the LBMA’s annual conference in Sorrento, Italy.“We are connecting the LBMA standards and also its internationalism with the Asian liquidity.”To complement, not displace Hong Kong in July launched a “Delivery Connect” programme with the Shanghai Gold Exchange to facilitate cross-border gold settlements.“Towards the end of this year, you will see a number of things happening: we will announce details of a renminbi physically delivered gold futures to be launched on our stock exchange,” Hui said.Singapore, meanwhile, is starting up central bank gold-vaulting services this month and establishing an OTC gold clearing system. The Southeast Asian city-state already has commercial vaulting capacity of more than 2,000 metric tons.Singapore sees strong growth in Asian gold demand as the main driver for this expansion, Lim Cheng Khai, head of the financial markets development department at the Monetary Authority of Singapore, told the conference.“I think both Hong Kong and Singapore, we are under no illusion that we are trying to displace, but we are trying to complement price discovery in the Asian time zone,” he said.“People are looking to diversify gold holding storage”, he added. “The demand coming from both sovereigns, institutional investors, as well as high net worth individuals puts us in a good place to provide and build up that entire ecosystem.”(Reporting by Polina Devitt;Editing by Alison Williams)

Gold liquidity deep enough for Asian, Western hubs to coexist, HK and Singapore say

Why a weaker US labor market may be a good thing?

Oct 6 (Reuters) - US software stocks are touching fresh 2026 highs, supported by a sharp rise in earnings expectations, which according to several analysts indicate that fears over AI-led disruption in ​the sector were largely overstated.The S&amp;P 500 software and services index (.SPLRCIS), rose 1.3% ‌on Tuesday to its highest levels since November 2025, after posting its biggest quarterly jump in July-September since the second quarter of 2020. Strong earnings from software companies such as Salesforce (CRM.N), ServiceNow (NOW.N), and Accenture (ACN.N), along with partnerships with ​AI labs, helped fuel a recovery in the sector that had been underway since ​late June.Cybersecurity stocks have stood out, with Crowdstrike (CRWD.O), Fortinet (FTNT.O), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW.O), &nbsp;notching ⁠triple digit percentage gains this year as companies spend heavily on cybersecurity in the age ​of AI."AI has been more of an enabler for a lot of these software companies, more ​than a disruptor," said Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist at LPL Financial. "We're seeing more of a trend change now where software has recaptured the leadership reins, and we think there's a window here for outperformance in ​software over semiconductors."The software index is up 5% this year while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor ​index (.SOX), home to many US chipmakers, has surged 87.5% in 2026, but is well off its highs.The sector's ‌expected annual ⁠earnings growth rate for 2026 has climbed to 20.6%, up from 13.8% at the end of March, according to LSEG data.'SAASPOCALYPSE' FEARS OVERDONEThe software index lost more than 26% from late January to its lowest point in April, in a selloff dubbed "SaaSpocalypse", driven by fears that companies could ​use AI to build ​applications in-house more cheaply.Analysts ⁠now say the fear ran ahead of evidence."The whole SaaSpocalypse didn't happen anywhere near as fast as some of the people on Wall ​Street thought it would," said Rebecca Wettemann, CEO of technology research firm ​Valoir, adding ⁠that vendors were reporting customer uptake as AI adoption moved beyond the experimental stage.Still, risks to the sector persist as the fast-evolving technology upends business models.Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment ⁠Management, said ​the real test for software stocks could come in ​the second half of 2027, when more data center capacity might make AI coding a bigger threat to traditional software ​firms.Reporting by Joel Jose and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Sruthi Shankar and Arun Koyyur

US software stocks scale fresh 2026 highs as AI disruption worries fade

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Supply chain pressures heated up modestly in ​September, a report said from the ‌Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday.The bank reported that its latest Global Supply ​Chain Pressure Index moved up to ​1.28 in September versus the upwardly revised ⁠1.20 seen in August. The release did ​not say what drove the recent performance ​of the index, which is designed to track how well global supply chains are functioning. While September’s pressure ​level rose, supply chain pressures have ​nevertheless retreated from their most recent peak of ‌1.81 ⁠in May, which while elevated, was far below the 4.43 reading hit in December 2021, which captured the widespread disruptions caused ​by the ​COVID-19 ⁠pandemic.Elevated supply chain pressures can be a contributor to rising inflation ​pressures. Fed officials raised their ​interest ⁠rate target last month and penciled in another increase for year end as part ⁠of ​a bid to help bring ​elevated price pressures back to the 2% target.Reporting by ​Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

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