(Kitco Commentary) - On Monday I suggested gold is poised for a move back into 5k territory with an upside breakout of the parallel channel. Although it hasn't done it just yet, I continue to give that premise the benefit of the doubt.
Price is squeezing between the 200 day moving average and the top resistance line of the channel, as shown on the daily chart below.
A close above $4510 today keeps the bullish plan alive. Realistically, a close today below $4500 would have me reconsidering the probability of the bullish move playing out on any sort of short-termish timeframe.
The weekly gold chart looks very constructive - especially with bullish sentiment stuck, and now rolling around the bottom of the dumpster it's been caught in. Weekly stochastics are well oversold while price is supported at the 50 week moving average, and the weekly candle is shaping up to look like a really nice hammer that would (could) turn out to be a higher low from the late March test of $4100.
A close above $4510 would make both the daily and weekly charts continue to look bullish, while a close below $4500 I think needs to be respected and considered.
Good luck.
