Bitcoin swept last week's low and Ethereum recovered a deep wick to close green. I still see constructive altcoin potential, but unfulfilled Close Longs and a developing third bearish divergence Cluster on FIL demand attention. Completed bounces and unhit entries are not the same opportunity.
Bitcoin sweeps last week’s low while my September comparison holds
BTC is chopping again, but Thursday's low slipped just below the low exactly one week earlier: technically, Bitcoin swept the lows. I still think BTC is repeating the early-September setup that preceded a pump to higher highs. That is my comparison and expectation, not a confirmed repeat of the rally.
Ethereum closes green despite a deeper lower wick
ETH swept the lows more deeply: Thursday's lower wick reached roughly 4% below its open, yet ETH still closed green. That is not a 4% closing loss. Volume looks really good to me. Separately, I am still waiting for stronger bullish RSI reset confirmation on ETH/BTC and think we will get it before the end of the weekend. The ratio's pending stronger confirmation must not be treated as an already-confirmed ETH dollar-price signal.
Bitcoin dominance has two Breakouts, but I expect a reversal
BTC.D printed a second consecutive TBO Breakout on Thursday on a weak doji candle. It honestly looks to me as though it will start reversing today, which will send a massive bull signal to ALTs. The reversal itself has not been confirmed here. Combined stablecoin dominance remains in daily bullish consolidation, wicked higher Thursday and has a confirmed 4-hour TBO Breakout. Despite that contrary evidence, I still expect ALTs to fly and combined stablecoin dominance to cool off. A tag of the weekly Fast line remains an if, not an achieved move. ETH.D is getting some love; SOL.D also has a jump in TBO Support and a bullish RSI reset in progress. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
Outside-the-top-ten optimism coexists with unfulfilled bearish warnings
The Top 10 Tokens should not be the focus in my view; OTHERS.D should. OTHERS.D could push up and out of the Cloud by the end of today, and I still think it can push above TBO Resistance at 8.75%. Neither is a completed breakout. TOTALE50.D is still holding above its Cloud, while TOTALE100.D wicked to the Cloud bottom but narrowly escaped. Separately, dollar-cap TOTALES has yet to fulfill its second TBO Close Long and should do so before the end of the weekend; it remains a bearish reversal warning. OTHERS is in similar shape. TOTAL3ESBTC is strong bearish below the Cloud, and OTHERS/BTC wicked to the Cloud bottom, a rejection zone. OTHERS is stronger than ETH right now. These dollar-cap, ratio and dominance observations are distinct; the bullish OTHERS.D expectation does not erase the bearish warnings.
Gold’s bullish divergence is forming as macro markets bounce unevenly
Gold is working on a TBT Bullish Divergence today, not a confirmed divergence. Silver bounced 3% from TBO Support on Thursday. Uranium bounced too but is still crazy strong bearish. PAXG/BTC is inside its Cloud: could it move up to flick the weekly Fast line at 0.05725? That is a conditional ratio destination, not a gold-dollar or BTC-dollar target. DXY confirmed a move of TBO Resistance to Thursday's high and continues falling today, so a TBT Bearish Divergence is not far off, not confirmed. EURUSD is bouncing and USDJPY is starting to drop. S&P futures are already back to Fast. Thursday gaps, including NVDA's, give charts a reason to bounce in my view; GME rose 3.20%, and TSLA and SPCX were up after hours. VIX wicked to its Cloud top, a rejection zone. The Nikkei fell nearly 5% Thursday, printed a Close Long and fell below support, previously resistance. Shanghai fell below TBO Support, Hang Seng remains strong bearish and KOSPI is right at TBO Support. I see the AI sell-off as a dip-buy opportunity. Oil futures reached TBO Resistance just above historical overhead resistance, became overbought on RSI and gave another bearish RSI reset.
STRK’s lower entry remains unhit while other altcoin signals split
STRK closed up 12% Thursday but still has not hit my entry at 0.06871, the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This remains a conditional lower-entry watch, not a buy at the current price. I gave no stop or target for it. NEAR already bounced 7.76% from Fast and still has more than halfway to go to TBO Resistance at 6.000; remaining upside does not make that completed bounce a fresh entry. AERO already retraced to Fast, printed a Springboard Bounce and hit resistance the same day. NIGHT has a Springboard setup now, without authored numerical plan levels here. SOL made a lower low Thursday, but SOL.D shows dominance shifting its way; usually it takes a day or two for that shift to show up in price. DOGE printed an Open Short, technically strong bearish; I see it more as a reset likely to print another Close Short and give another entry. MNT printed an Open Short along with a big Support shift and another bullish RSI reset. Those constructive interpretations do not cancel TAO's third closed Close Long, explicitly not bullish, VVV's second closed Close Long, or FIL working on a third bearish divergence Cluster: please be careful with FIL. XMR remains strong bullish above its Cloud; GRAM's Support-tag entry has already happened. CC dropped 16% in two days; BTW printed another bearish divergence on a 23% decline after a higher high. ZRO closed green and is pushing on the 0.618 Fib. INJ closed above 0.382 Thursday and is heading to 0.5 at 11.851, with longer-term overhead resistance just above $12. PYTH pushed further above long-term resistance; its next target is just under 0.12 at 0.382. TIA is up nearly 12% so far, looks likely to crack 0.236 and has a weekly pattern worth studying. PENGU and FARTCOIN confirmed Open Shorts; I expect new Close Shorts for PENGU. I still expect OP to pop. COMP printed a Close Long, BAT remains strong bullish, S looks likely to push and close above TBO Resistance before the weekend ends, and ZK is already up over 5% and about to push higher. W dipped into the Cloud but returned to Fast; I am patiently waiting for ORCA to bounce. WAL is below 0.236 but remains strong bullish: be patient.
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