(Kitco Commentary) - My bounce conviction in Bitcoin and Ethereum has not disappeared with the equity selloff. Today I separate that outlook from unfinished divergence signals, an actual OTHERS.D support retest and the developing break in oil.
Bitcoin has a new pivot low, with a Fast-line bounce still my conviction
Bitcoin put in new TBO Support at $76,388 on Tuesday, marking a new strong pivot low. Because BTC already lost the first support level, I see $76,388 as a destination for the next drop when it happens, not evidence that the next drop has already occurred. One bullish RSI reset is confirmed. In my view, it is just a matter of time until BTC springs back to the Fast line; I am not assigning a bounce date.
Ethereum offers stronger reversal potential, but four-hour conditions remain bearish
ETH still looks better to me for bullish reversal potential: it has already fallen 22% and had two deep bullish RSI resets. I think it is just a matter of time until it starts bouncing, and I would prefer ETH to lead because it typically leads ALTs more strongly. Two more TBO Close Shorts appeared on the four-hour chart, but ETH remains strong bearish on that timeframe. ETH/BTC is only working on a daily TBT Bullish Divergence today. If confirmed, that will be a strong bullish signal for ETH to outperform BTC, especially with its Slow line still pointing up.
OTHERS.D confirms a support retest while other dominance signals develop
A small OTHERS.D bounce off newly broken-above resistance confirms it as support. This is the dominance chart, not OTHERS market cap, and it is not a spot-price return forecast. ETH.D is working on a bullish divergence today, not a confirmed one. Stablecoin dominance remains in bullish consolidation; its bearish RSI reset confirmed last week, while the four-hour chart has two Close Longs and a bearish divergence. BTC.D did nothing Tuesday. TOTALE100 saw Support jump to Tuesday's low and RSI move above my spaghetti-resistance line. OTHERS is unchanged; OTHERS/BTC rose slightly Tuesday but remains in bearish consolidation.
Dollar weakness accompanies a global equity selloff
DXY was already down 0.55% in my update and was working on a Close Long, not a completed daily signal. The euro is rising and the yen is strengthening as USD/JPY falls. S&P futures are down more than 1% on the developing day, with RSI possibly heading oversold. NVDA is down after hours, TSLA more than 4%, and SPCX more than 5%. The VIX nearly closed in my Rejection Zone Tuesday; I expect it to open well inside Wednesday. Nikkei is down more than 3% and KOSPI about 3%. Hang Seng confirmed a bullish divergence Tuesday but is struggling to close inside Cloud. My election-sentiment interpretation is commentary, not a verified single cause of every move.
Oil is moving below drawn support, not yet a completed daily break
Oil futures are finally moving below the support line in today's developing candle. This is an intraday move below drawn support, not a completed daily close. The selloff in equities and this change in oil deserve attention together, without turning an unfinished candle into a confirmed reversal.
Silver remains bearish even as I expect a powerful bounce
Silver remains strong bearish. TBO Pro separates time below Cloud, at 2.45 times baseline, from price extension below Cloud, at 4.75 times baseline. These are two different measurements, not rebound odds or a countdown. My view is that we are due for a majestic bounce, but that is not a guaranteed timetable. Gold is quiet; platinum is going below historical support instead of bouncing, and copper is down. PAXG/BTC is green because BTC is falling while gold holds, yet remains macro bearish. Among ALTs, XMR and PEPE remain strong bullish; SKY, JASMY and AXS hold support. STABLE dropped to Support and bounced 18%; PIEVERSE closed up 8%; MON printed a second Breakdown; GNO printed a bullish RSI reset Tuesday. BEAM is almost back to Fast at 0.003735. A Springboard Bounce to Resistance at 0.0057 would be beautiful, but that is a tall order in my view. It is conditional, not a promised target.
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