(Kitco Commentary) - Gold, silver and Bitcoin all ripped after the election. Here's what I told you before the vote, what I bought, and why this isn't a confirmed bull market yet.
The midterms are over, and the market did what it has done after almost every midterm election: it pumped.
Gold jumped about 3% to around $4,053 this morning. Silver popped about 4.6%. Bitcoin dropped just below $76,000 overnight as the results came in, then ripped back above $80,000. That's a gain of over 4% on the day. The Nasdaq is up more than 2%, and the Dow is up over 1,000 points.
Gold chart showing the move back above $4,000
Bitcoin chart showing the dip below $76,000 and the bounce back above $80,000
What I said before the vote
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that the window to start stacking Bitcoin before the midterms was closing, and that dollar cost averaging in during the dip made sense if you believe in hodling Bitcoin long-term. Anyone who DCA'd (Dollar Cost Averaged) through the last two weeks of weakness is already sitting on a profit.
On Monday, I wrote that gold was bouncing harder than Bitcoin, and that the dip below $4,000 might be the last chance to buy gold for under $4,000. Two days later, gold is back above $4,000. I had already told my private Discord on Friday and over the weekend, so to get informed in real time, join The Profit Circle.
I also told you what I was doing with my own money. I went long gold and silver on Friday, right at the bottom, on both Phemex and Breakout Prop (I'm an affiliate of both), and I bought physical silver over the weekend.
The bigger point
I'm not going to dwell on politics. Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, and the market had a pullback overnight, then a relief rally. I never predicted which party would win more seats, and I didn't need to.
The pattern is the point. Markets hate uncertainty, and nothing creates uncertainty like an election. That's why we so often see a strong dip leading into the midterms. Once the results are in, the uncertainty clears, and money that was sitting on the sidelines comes back in. The S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1954. I've been saying for weeks that a dip before the midterms usually leads to a pump after, and the downward pain has eased post-midterm, just as expected.
Why closing my altcoin shorts was the right call
Last week, I closed my altcoin shorts near the bottom for a big gain. This rally confirms that was a wise decision.
Even if altcoins go lower in the coming weeks, the uncertainty going into the election wasn't worth the risk. A post-midterm relief rally was always a real possibility, and when it hits, altcoins can rip a lot harder than Bitcoin. Taking profit before an event like that isn't leaving money on the table. It's protecting the money you already made. Sticking to your discipline wins in the long run.
Is it time to chase?
No. It's only been one day, and a one-day pump is not a confirmation of a new bull market. Not even close.
Bitcoin still hasn't broken above the major support and resistance line we've been watching in the $80,000 to $82,000 zone. That level was strong support for weeks, and it has been resistance since it broke. Until Bitcoin reclaims it and closes a daily candle above it, I'm treating this as a relief rally, not a new uptrend. So continuing to DCA into BTC is still totally fine. No need to jump all in immediately.
Gold is in a better spot. Getting back above $4,000 this fast tells me Friday's low near $3,870 could be the bottom. I'm still holding my gold and silver trades, and my physical silver isn't going anywhere.
What's next
- The October jobs report comes out Friday.
- The market is still pricing a likely Fed rate hike in December.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen steady outflows over the last few weeks, and Bitcoin needs those buyers back to break higher.
Any one of these can cool off this rally fast, so manage your risk. If you're DCAing, keep DCAing. If you're trading, wait for confirmation before going big.
I'll be posting what I'm seeing in real time in The Profit Circle, my private Discord community. If you want to learn how I read moves like these, that's what I teach at CassiusCuvee.com, and Swell Point is built to help you spot when momentum actually shifts after the noise. GetSwellPoint.com
General chat in The Profit Circle is free! 🌊
