(Kitco Commentary) - Bitcoin and Ethereum delivered the bounce, but the speed of the move creates a new problem: stretched momentum before the broader recovery is complete. I am separating confirmed divergences from unfinished Cloud recoveries and watching whether ETH leadership reaches ALTs.
Bitcoin breaks RSI resistance, but still needs to reclaim the Cloud
Bitcoin's surprise short squeeze lifted it nearly 4% on Wednesday. RSI closed above the previous lower high, validating the break of my spaghetti-resistance line. BTC is above Fast for the first time since October 21, when it was sharply rejected soon afterward. We moved too high, too fast in my view, but the Slow line wins in the end. The main goal is to push and hold above Cloud to return to strong bullish mode; that goal is not yet a confirmed outcome.
Ethereum leads the bounce as confirmed divergence meets stretched momentum
ETH closed up over 6% Wednesday and printed the TBT Bullish Divergence that was only developing in yesterday's update. Its daily RSI is already almost overbought, which is not what I want to see this early. ETH/BTC printed a TBT Bullish Divergence too, but its RSI is already overbought. I expect ETH leading and outperforming BTC to trickle into ALTs, hopefully by the weekend; that timing is a hope, not a promise.
Stablecoin dominance weakens, while Bitcoin and Ethereum take the share
Stablecoin dominance fell as BTC and ETH rose, broke RSI spaghetti support, and is heading back below the bottom of Cloud. My view is that it is going lower. Yesterday's bearish divergence remains relevant context. However, dominance shifted into BTC.D and ETH.D rather than giving Top 10 Dominance or OTHERS.D much love. BTC.D is back above Cloud at TBO Resistance, where I hope it fails. ETH.D rose nearly 3% Wednesday and has RSI at 83.43. TOTALES.D is at the top of Cloud and may push above today; TOTALE50.D and TOTALE100.D remain strong bearish. Separately, TOTALES market cap rose 4% Wednesday but remains in bearish consolidation, with a bit more to go to get above Cloud. TOTALE50 closed its October 22 Close Long, TOTALE100 broke RSI resistance, and OTHERS is relatively unchanged. Dominance is market share, not spot price; these .D charts are not their market-cap counterparts.
Stocks recover into the Cloud, but the S&P remains weak
S&P futures closed back inside Cloud Wednesday, returning to bullish consolidation, but the chart is still weak. Its Slow line is pointing up; it needs a push above Cloud and to hold there. The Dow closed up 3%, NDX rose without filling its upper gap, and Russell 2000 confirmed a second Close Short. VIX closed at 16.60, down over 20%. DXY dropped deeper inside Cloud but did not confirm its Close Long Wednesday; that signal is in progress again today. I view dollar weakness as relief for forex and stocks, with crypto benefiting in turn, not proof of a single cause for each move. EUR/USD moved into bullish consolidation, while USD/JPY printed an Open Long: that is yen weakness, not yen strength. Shanghai confirmed bullish divergence but remains very macro bearish. Hang Seng is up over 2% toward resistance around 24,839; KOSPI is below new Support, though I still expect a bounce.
Oil falls more than 9%, with RSI already oversold
Oil futures fell more than 9% Wednesday. RSI flipped oversold quickly, which is too bad in my view because I think oil needs to fall a lot more. That is my outlook, not a guaranteed destination. That daily loss is Wednesday's move, not the smaller developing Thursday change shown in the screenshot header.
Metals bounce without reversing their bearish state
Gold and silver are rising as oil falls, but both remain wildly strong bearish. I am watching whether platinum might be forming a bump and run; it is a question, not a confirmed pattern. Copper wicked well below the daily Cloud but closed back inside; uranium remains very strong bearish. PAXG/BTC is holding inside Cloud in bullish consolidation, though BTC can easily out-pump gold. In ALTs, XRP printed bullish divergence but reached Fast, where it had already been rejected twice; SOL is bouncing from the bottom of Cloud with a bullish RSI reset. XMR and PEPE remain very strong bullish. BONK's confirmed bullish divergence comes with a macro-bearish Slow line; USELESS is only working on a second divergence. BEAM already bounced 20% after tagging daily Fast, with Resistance at 0.0057; that is not a fresh entry instruction. Finally, ANSEM remains crazy strong bearish despite confirming a bullish RSI reset after nearly 14 days oversold.
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