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(Kitco News) Gold has formed a new base at the $1,900 an ounce level, and if that continues to hold, record highs will be within reach, according to VanEck's latest analysis.
Gold has just spent the most time above $1,900 an ounce than ever before, forming a new base and averaging $1,933 per ounce year to date, said VanEck's deputy portfolio manager Imaru Casanova.
"Gold is showing resilience despite a strong stock market and recent U.S. dollar strength," Casanova wrote in a report Thursday. "Gold bullion exchanged traded products outflows have subsided this year, with net inflows, albeit small, resulting in a 0.38% increase in holdings year to date."
The all-time highs are within reach for gold as the Federal Reserve halts its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades.
"The $2,075 per ounce all-time high seems well within reach, in our view," Casanova said. "We see a macro backdrop that continues to be supportive of gold in the longer term."
As the Fed kept rates unchanged in a range of 5% to 5.25% following ten consecutive increases, central bank Chair Jerome Powell confirmed Wednesday that the median dot plot saw at least two more 25-bps rate hikes this year. But the market remained unconvinced, pricing in only one rate hike in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
May was a promising month for gold as the metal attempted to test record highs, but market optimism ended up weighing on sentiment. Since then, gold has been resilient, holding above $1,950 an ounce. At the time of writing, August Comex gold futures were trading at $1,970.10, flat on the day.
"Expectations that this past rate hike may be the last one in this tightening cycle supported gold in early May," Casanova wrote. "However, through most of the month, the U.S. dollar gained and gold fell as the narrative shifted to a more hawkish view and the probability of further rate hikes in 2023 increased."
In the meantime, miners significantly underperformed gold last month, with the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) and the MVIS Global Juniors Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) down 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively.
"The magnitude of the underperformance is a bit surprising to us … May was a relatively good month for gold equities on the news front, with companies reporting first-quarter results that were, generally, better than expected," the report said. "We view this reaction as overdone and further contributing to the current valuation gap between gold and gold equities."
The sector's overall health looks solid, with gold producers remaining committed to disciplined capital allocation, growth, shareholder returns, profitability, and healthy balance sheets, the report said.
"They are also responsible operators, running sustainable businesses aiming to deliver benefits to all stakeholders while carefully managing the impact on the environment," Casanova wrote. "A re-rating of the gold mining equities from historically low valuations at present is well supported by the industry's strong fundamentals."
