Gold price dips after stronger batch of U.S. data

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
Published
Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are weaker and silver prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading Thursday. Modest overnight gains in both metals were lost after the release of some upbeat U.S. economic data that beat market expectations. August gold was last down $6.60 at $1,963.30 and September silver was up $0.08 at $25.05.

Fresh U.S. economic data Thursday morning fell into the camp of the monetary policy hawks, suggesting one more interest rate hike may be necessary to further cool the U.S. economy. The first estimate of second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product came in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, which handily beat market expectations for a rise of 2.0%. The internals of the GDP report were also solid. Meantime, U.S. durable goods order were reported up 4.7% in June versus expectations for a 1.5% gain. Also, weekly U.S. jobless claims came in lower than expected. The data rallied the U.S. dollar index and pushed U.S. Treasury yields up a bit—both of which are bearish for the precious metals markets.

The marketplace Thursday morning looks like it has pretty much digested Wednesday afternoon’s 25 basis-point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at his press conference were deemed not too hawkish and not too dovish and the markets showed no big reactions. Some Fed watchers are thinking the central bank is now done with its rate-hike cycle, while others think the Fed will do one more rate increase in November.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The indexes are at or near their highs for the year amid a summertime rally.


Gold market holds gains as Fed keeps options open on future rate hikes

In other news, the European Central Bank slightly raised its main interest rate at today’s monetary policy meeting, as expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.9%.  

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, the gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,982.60 and then at the July high of $1,989.80. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,951.60 and then at $1,937.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing September futures prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $26.645. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at the July high of $25.475 and then at $26.00. Next support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $24.675 and then at this week’s low of $24.425. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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