(Kitco News) - Bitcoin is up more than 100% year-to-date and 30% in the last two weeks reigniting bullish sentiment. Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at InTheMoneyStocks.com and President of VerifiedInvesting.com, charts how far this recent rally can go.
Bitcoin hit a 17-month high of above $35,000 this week on optimism that a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved within the next 4 months. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $33,981, down 2% on the day.
Bitcoin has been moving higher on spot Bitcoin ETF news, but once that approval officially comes through, that may trigger a sell off or a pause in the price, with some profits being taken off the table, Soloway told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News.
"You'll probably get approval by year-end or early in 2024. If Bitcoin is still up here, you may not go higher," Soloway warned. "It may be already factoring in the approval. It's very possible it could be a sell on the news."
At one point last week, Bitcoin surged 10% on a false report that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF application was approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). There have also been several comments that a spot Bitcoin ETF approval could come as early as the end of this year.
The maximum upside for Bitcoin in this bull run is $47,000, according to Soloway, stating that may be the next resistance level.
"Many of these ETF institutions have probably been accumulating for the last couple of months, knowing that eventually an approval will come. And so, there may not be as many buyers for the spot ETF," he described.
Bitcoin at $15k?
Going into 2024, Soloway is projecting a recession and a potential stock market selloff of 35%. He is also not taking off the table his previous call that Bitcoin could drop to the $15,000 level.
"What happens if the stock market goes down 35%? Fear and panic will take over, even in Bitcoin holders. Remember, there are a lot of people who hold Bitcoin that also have big stock portfolios. And if I'm down huge at some point, do I start to panic and start selling everything? That's the worry that could drive us back to $15,000 or even lower," Soloway described.
To find out what Soloway sees as the floor price for Bitcoin, watch the video above. Soloway also gives his long-term 2026 outlook.
Surging yields & unsustainable debt to trigger bank collapses
Soloway's macro outlook is gloomy, with credit card debt already at all-time highs and interest rates more than doubling to 25% this year.
"The consumer is being tapped, the government and our debt is in a position where it's unsustainable. And then you have this push where yields are going up, which will eventually cause banks to collapse," he warned.
Recession will be inevitable in the first quarter of 2024, Soloway added, with the banking sector looking very risky. A lot of financial institutions are "essentially zombie banks now," carrying "dead paper on their balance sheet," he said.
Gold is an outstanding asset
Soloway is bullish on gold, stating that a new all-time high is coming. "It's always about listening to the smarter money [central banks], and they're the ones that literally see the dollars and cents being printed, and they're the ones printing it. If they're loading the boat on gold, then it probably says we need to do the same," he said.
For Soloway's 2024 gold price prediction, watch the video above. He also revealed three key trading bets for next year. Watch the video above for details.
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