Hot U.S. producer price index puts price pressure on precious metals

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices lost mild overnight gains and are under modest selling pressure in early U.S. trading Friday, following a hotter than expected U.S. inflation report. April gold was last down $2.40 at $2,012.10. March silver was last down $0.051 at $22.90.

The just-released U.S. producer price index report for January showed a rise of 0.3%, month-on-month. PPI was seen coming in at up 0.1% from December, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month decline in the December PPI report. The “core” PPI (excluding food and energy) was up 0.5% compared to expectations for a rise of 0.1%. Somewhat mitigating the hotter PPI report today was the just-released U.S. housing starts report in January that showed starts were down 14.8% versus expectations for a decline of only 0.7%.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins.

Here’s a startling headline from the Wall Street Journal today: “The U.S. government will soon spend more on interest payments than defense.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and rallying after the hot PPI report. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $77.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.322%, which is up from the yield seen just before the PPI report was released.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes new residential construction and the University of Michigan consumer survey.

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Technically, the gold futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at the February high of $2,083.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,950.00. First resistance is seen at $2,023.30 and then at $2,035.00. First support is seen at $2,000.00 and then at this week’s low of $1,996.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

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The silver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing March futures prices above solid technical resistance at $23.445. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $23.15 and then at

$23.445. Next support is seen at $22.50 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll add your email address to my Front Burner list.)

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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