(Kitco News) - Silver continues to underperform gold as investors look for safe-haven assets to hedge against growing economic and financial market uncertainty; however, silver should continue to do well as robust industrial demand overshadows diminishing supplies.
On Wednesday, the Silver Institute published its 2025 Silver Survey, and the precious metal is expected to see its fifth consecutive annual deficit, albeit its smallest imbalance in four years.
According to the report compiled by Metals Focus, silver is expected to see a deficit of 117 million ounces as demand falls slightly to 1.148 billion ounces and total supply increases by 1.5% as mine output rises.
Industrial demand for silver is expected to remain relatively unchanged this year at around 677.4 million ounces. The report said that electrical and electronics demand is expected to grow by a modest 1% this year as gains in automotive end-use, power grid investment, and consumer electronics outweigh a dip in the solar power sector.
The report comes as silver has seen significant market volatility and has underperformed gold as fears over the global economy have grown. Currently, the gold-silver ratio is hovering near a five-year high above 100 points.
Silver has struggled in recent weeks as investors have raised concerns that industrial demand could be hurt if the global economy falls into a recession.
However, in an interview with Kitco News, Philip Newman, Managing Director at Metals Focus, said that even after five years of supply deficits, the market is nowhere near close to rebalancing itself.
“Ultimately, we still think there's a few years left of a deficit and that should prove to be price positive, even though in the short term we could continue to see some volatility,” he added.
Although some countries have rolled back their green-energy initiatives, Newman said it’s unlikely the global green energy transition will come to a complete halt.
“One could argue that governments may cut back on their expenditure on green energy, but at the same time, many remember how volatile oil prices have been since the invasion of Ukraine. So I think there is still an urgency to diversify away from fossil fuels,” he said.
At the same time, the growing electrification of the global economy will also continue to support silver.
“The strength of the silver market is its diversity. Even in a recession, I don’t think you are going to see demand fall off a cliff. There is always some risk, but I do see some resilience in the silver market,” he said.
Although silver’s industrial demand has been holding the precious metal back relative to gold, Newman said that he doesn’t see it as a major deterrent for investors. After two years of disappointing investment demand, Metals Focus expects investors to increase their exposure to silver by 70 tonnes, a 14% increase from last year.
He added that economic uncertainty could revive investment demand as investors look for safe-haven value in the precious metals market.
Along with an increase in paper silver, Metals Focus sees some stability in physical bullion. The report said silver bar and coin demand is expected to rise to 204 million ounces, a 7% increase from 2024.
“Coin and net bar demand is set to partially recover in 2025 after two years of weakness. Europe could see a slight recovery, led by Germany, where some normalcy returns after two years of heavy losses,” the analysts said in the report.
Silver is seeing significant volatility, but Newman noted that while some investors may be disappointed with silver’s performance compared to gold, others could potentially see an opportunity as the ratio trades at multi-year highs. The historic average for the gold-silver ratio is around 60 points.
“Some investors are thinking: ‘This can't carry on. This ratio has to come down.’ Even if the ratio was 80 or 75, silver would be getting pretty close to $40, and that isn't that dramatic,” he said.
Newman said that higher prices would be the biggest factor in shifting silver’s supply and demand imbalance. He noted that while there is a significant stockpile of silver in the world, prices would have to be significantly above $35 an ounce before investors even think about unleashing this supply of metal into the marketplace.
Although silver faces some challenges this year, Metals Focus expects prices to remain well supported.
“We believe there is further upside for silver prices. We are confident that in the next few months we will see new cycle peaks, exceeding the 2024 high to levels not seen for many years. At some point, we also expect silver to catch up with gold thanks to investors looking for value given its recent underperformance,” the analysts said in the report. “This may not be a story for 2025, however, given still adequate silver stocks and the current safe-haven bid on gold, which has pushed its price into uncharted territory.”
