(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are lower ahead of the North American market open Wednesday, as renewed U.S.-Iran escalation pushed crude oil, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, overwhelming the safe-haven bid from Strait of Hormuz risk. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,074.10 an ounce, down 0.75%, while spot silver was trading near $58.30, down 2.57% on the session.
Gold’s early range was $4,040.10 to $4,134.90, leaving the metal above the $4,000 area but below the $4,162 to $4,214 resistance zone that capped the latest rebound. Silver’s early range was $57.99 to $61.15, with the metal extending this week’s reversal after failing to sustain momentum above the $61.00 area.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit with renewed attack risk, not a full chokepoint closure. The latest escalation followed attacks on three commercial vessels in and around the strait, U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Washington’s move to revoke Iran’s oil-sales waiver. WTI crude traded near $74.93 and Brent near $78.73 after President Donald Trump said the Iran agreement was finished, while U.S. Central Command launched strikes after the vessel attacks. For gold, the immediate effect is not a clean geopolitical bid; the dominant channel is higher oil, higher inflation risk, firmer yields and a stronger dollar.
Positioning after Thursday’s June employment report remains supportive for gold on growth grounds, but the rates market has moved back against bullion. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June, below the 115,000 consensus, while April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. The softer hiring print initially reduced pressure for additional Fed tightening and helped gold stabilize above $4,000, but September hike odds have since climbed to 68% before today’s Fed minutes as crude oil, yields and the dollar moved higher. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.58%, while DXY was near 101.18, its highest level since July 2.
Traders are watching today’s Fed minutes, the July 14 CPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET and any follow-through in Hormuz shipping incidents. A hawkish tone in the minutes would test the $4,041 to $4,072 support band in gold; softer inflation data next week would give metals a cleaner path to rebuild the post-payrolls rebound.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply higher and trading around $74.93 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $78.73. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.58% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,162.36 to $4,214.34 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day moving average at $4,372.44. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,041.65, with deeper downside targets at $3,942.10 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,162.36 and then at $4,214.34. First support is seen at $4,072.40 and then at $4,041.65.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.33 to $62.81 area, with a move above that zone targeting $64.00 and then $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.99, with deeper downside targets at $55.00 and then $50.00. First resistance is seen at $61.33 and then at $62.81. Next support is seen at $57.99 and then at $55.00.
