(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher ahead of the North American market open Friday, as precious metals steadied after Thursday’s selloff while traders weighed a stronger U.S. labor-market signal, the ECB’s rate hold, elevated crude oil prices and firm Treasury yields. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,055.00 an ounce, up 0.16%, while spot silver was trading near $58.31, up 1.35% on the session.
Gold’s early range was $4,021.20 to $4,064.90, leaving the metal above Thursday’s lows but still below the $4,067 and $4,139 resistance levels identified in the latest technical setup. Silver’s early range was $56.98 to $58.76, with the metal rebounding back above the 50-period moving average near $58.22 but still below the $58.56 to $59.94 resistance area.
Positioning after the latest significant economic data remains less dovish than the softer CPI and PPI prints initially suggested. The ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%, with the main refinancing rate at 2.40% and the marginal lending rate at 2.65%, while keeping the focus on the intensity and duration of the energy-price shock. U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 22,000 to 187,000 for the week ended July 18, the lowest level since September 1969, while the prior week was revised up to 209,000. The data reinforce a market view that layoffs remain historically low even as hiring momentum has cooled. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.70% and DXY was near 101.39, leaving gold supported by geopolitical risk but capped by firm yields and a stronger dollar.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open but highly stressed transit under active military and shipping pressure, not a normalized operating environment. U.S.-Iran tensions remain centered on control of the waterway, while Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea have widened the shipping-risk map and complicated Gulf export routes. Brent crude eased to roughly $97.67 after peaking above $102, while U.S. crude traded near $89.76, keeping an energy-risk premium in place even as prices backed off their highs. For gold, the impact remains two-sided: geopolitical risk supports defensive demand, but high oil prices keep inflation risk elevated, support Treasury yields and limit the upside for non-yielding bullion. For broader markets, the setup is oil still elevated, yields firm, the dollar steady and silver trading as the higher-beta leg of the metals complex.
Traders are watching Fed communication ahead of next week’s July 29 policy decision, flash PMI data, follow-through in jobless claims and any fresh disruption to Hormuz or Red Sea shipping lanes. A sustained move above $4,067 would improve gold’s short-term setup, while a break below $4,030 would put the $3,998 support area back in focus.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower but still elevated and trading near $89.76 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $97.67. The U.S. dollar index is steady near 101.39. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.70% area.
Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $4,067 and the 100-period moving average near $4,063, while trendline resistance near $4,150 continues to cap rebounds. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,067, with a sustained move targeting $4,139 and then $4,150. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,030, with deeper downside targets at $3,998 and then $3,957. First resistance is seen at $4,064.90 and then at $4,067. First support is seen at $4,030 and then at $3,998.
Spot silver bulls have improved the near-term technical setup after prices rebounded from $57.10 support and moved back above the 50-period moving average near $58.22. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $58.56, with a move above that level targeting $59.94 and then $60.95. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.10, with deeper downside targets at $56.12 and then $54.69. First resistance is seen at $58.56 and then at $59.94. Next support is seen at $57.10 and then at $56.12.
