(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are lower in late-afternoon U.S. trading Tuesday, as sellers kept pressure on precious metals ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision even as Treasury yields and crude oil prices moved lower. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,027.40 an ounce, down 1.18%, while spot silver was trading near $57.02, down 2.19% on the session.
Gold’s session range was $4,011.70 to $4,082.90, leaving the metal above the $4,000 support area but below the $4,041.65 to $4,072.40 retracement zone that has turned into resistance. Silver’s session range was $56.55 to $58.70, with the metal failing again below the $60.00 inflection area and trading near the lower end of its daily range.
North American equities closed mixed as investors rotated out of chip and AI-linked shares and into less crowded earnings winners. The S&P 500 rose 15.60 points, or 0.2%, to 7,428.78, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 537.24 points, or 1.0%, to 52,747.32. The Nasdaq Composite fell 55.17 points, or 0.2%, to 24,876.91, and the Russell 2000 rose 5.77 points, or 0.2%, to 2,953.80. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite rose 181.56 points, or 0.51%, to 35,749.70.
European equities closed higher as lower oil prices and renewed U.S.-Iran negotiation hopes improved risk appetite. The STOXX Europe 600 rose 2.27 points, or 0.35%, to 646.89, London’s FTSE 100 gained 63.90 points, or 0.59%, to 10,845.65, France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.28% to 8,429.21 and Germany’s DAX advanced 0.34% as automakers led gains.
Positioning after the latest economic data remains two-sided but less supportive for gold than the softer inflation prints suggested. The Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index fell to 90.8 in July from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June, pointing to weaker household sentiment, while earlier CPI and PPI data cooled and durable-goods orders softened. However, stronger retail sales, historically low jobless claims, firmer business activity and improved University of Michigan sentiment have kept traders from pricing a clean dovish pivot.
Fed funds pricing still points to a hold Wednesday, but the market is assigning roughly a one-third probability to a surprise hike and continues to price later-year tightening risk. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.604%, the 2-year yield slipped to 4.275% and DXY held near 101.40, leaving gold unable to capitalize on lower yields because the rate story remains unresolved.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open but highly stressed transit under active diplomatic and military pressure, not a normalized operating environment. Crude oil prices fell sharply as U.S.-Iran framework talks continued and Washington signaled a preference to avoid further escalation, with Brent crude down 4.4% near $82.08 and WTI trading below $80 for the first time in more than a week. The decline in oil reduced the immediate inflation impulse that had pressured gold through yields, but it also removed part of the defensive bid tied to chokepoint risk. For broader markets, the Tuesday trade was oil lower, yields lower, dollar firm, equities mixed and precious metals weaker as traders focused on the Fed rather than the day’s relief in energy markets.
Traders are watching Wednesday’s Fed decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, Thursday’s GDP and PCE inflation data, and any fresh disruption to Hormuz or Red Sea shipping lanes. A sustained break below $4,011.70 would put the $3,959.80 and $3,942.10 support levels back in focus, while a recovery above $4,041.65 would ease immediate downside pressure.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading below $80.00 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.08. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and trading near 101.40. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.60% area.
Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain on the weak side of the $4,041.65 to $4,072.40 retracement zone and the trade through $4,022.06 turned $4,065.42 into a new minor top. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,041.65, with a sustained move targeting $4,072.40 and then $4,166.13. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,011.70, with deeper downside targets at $3,959.80 and then $3,942.10. First resistance is seen at $4,041.65 and then at $4,072.40. First support is seen at $4,011.70 and then at $3,959.80.
Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the $60.00 inflection area and well under the declining 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $58.70, with a move above that level targeting $59.44 and then $60.83. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $56.55, with deeper downside targets at $55.21 and then $54.80. First resistance is seen at $58.70 and then at $59.44. Next support is seen at $56.55 and then at $55.21.
