(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are lower ahead of the North American market open Friday, as a firmer U.S. dollar, elevated Treasury yields and renewed oil strength pressured precious metals after Thursday’s post-PCE rebound. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,057.10 an ounce, down 1.11%, while spot silver was trading near $57.77, down 1.90% on the session.
Gold’s early range was $4,049.40 to $4,112.80, leaving the metal above the $4,000 area but below Thursday’s $4,101 breakout level and the $4,114 resistance level identified in the latest short-term technical setup. Silver’s early range was $57.53 to $59.30, with the metal holding above $57.53 but failing to sustain a move through the $59.00 to $60.03 resistance band.
Positioning after Wednesday’s Fed rate announcement and the latest data remains two-sided, but not cleanly supportive for metals. The Fed held rates steady in the 3.50% to 3.75% range by a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike, leaving September hike risk alive. Thursday’s data showed U.S. real GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, while June headline PCE fell 0.1% on the month and slowed to 3.7% year over year. Core PCE rose 0.1% on the month and eased to 3.3% year over year. Personal income rose 0.2% and consumer spending rose 0.3%. The data support the case for a hold, but inflation remains above target and the 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.67%, leaving gold capped by real-rate pressure and a firmer dollar.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as severely disrupted transit under active military and shipping pressure, not a normalized operating environment. The U.S.-Iran conflict has impaired petroleum shipments through the strait for months, while Red Sea and Gulf shipping risks continue to keep a premium in crude and refined products. WTI crude traded near $85.46 in early U.S. trade, while Brent was near the high-$80s after pulling back from higher wartime levels earlier in the quarter. For gold, the impact remains two-sided: geopolitical and shipping risk support defensive demand, but higher oil prices feed inflation expectations, keep Treasury yields elevated and limit the upside for non-yielding bullion. For broader markets, the setup is oil firmer, dollar firm, bonds under pressure and silver underperforming gold.
Traders are watching follow-through in September Fed-rate pricing, the market’s response to Thursday’s GDP and PCE data, energy-price moves tied to Hormuz and Red Sea shipping, and any new Fed communication before the September policy meeting. A sustained move above $4,101 would improve gold’s short-term setup, while a break below $4,049.40 would put the $4,028.40 and $3,995.20 support levels back in focus.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading near $85.46 a barrel, while Brent crude was near the high-$80s. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.67% area.
Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $4,058 and the 100-period moving average near $4,071, while the metal continues to struggle below the $4,101.10 to $4,114 resistance area. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,101.10, with a sustained move targeting $4,114 and then $4,166. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,049.40, with deeper downside targets at $4,028.40 and then $3,995.20. First resistance is seen at $4,101.10 and then at $4,114. First support is seen at $4,049.40 and then at $4,028.40.
Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $58.11 and the 100-period moving average near $58.78, while the metal failed to hold Thursday’s push toward $59.30. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.00, with a move above that level targeting $60.03 and then $61.03. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.53, with deeper downside targets at $56.88 and then $56.11. First resistance is seen at $59.00 and then at $60.03. Next support is seen at $57.53 and then at $56.88.
