(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are lower in late-afternoon U.S. trading Thursday, as a cooler wholesale inflation report cut Treasury yields and rate-hike expectations but also reduced demand for metals as near-term inflation hedges. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,349.80 an ounce, down 1.31%, while spot silver was trading at $64.290, down 1.40% on the session.
North American equity markets closed higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to a record 7,798.99, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% to 26,803.03 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1% to 53,839.99. The Russell 2000 rose 0.2% to 3,052.85. European markets were mixed to slightly firmer during the session, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.2% in morning trade, Germany’s DAX up 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 up 0.2% and London’s FTSE 100 down 0.3% as weaker mining shares weighed on the U.K. benchmark.
The latest positioning shifted further toward a September Fed hold after this morning’s PPI and jobless-claims data. Final-demand PPI was unchanged in July, below expectations for a 0.2% rise, while producer prices rose 4.7% from a year earlier. The measure excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.4% on the month and 4.7% year-over-year, leaving some caution around core PCE pass-through. Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 209,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.777 million. September hike odds fell to 34.6% from 40.6% after the PPI release, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.648% from 4.686% Wednesday. The next macro tests are July retail sales Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET and the University of Michigan preliminary August sentiment index at 10 a.m. ET.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand, but Thursday’s market impact was muted by weaker demand signals. U.S. and Iranian positions remain locked, with Washington saying the strait is open and regional authorities saying traffic remains restricted until Iran’s conditions are accepted. Oil prices fell after demand forecasts were marked lower, with Brent crude down 2.1% to $87.07 a barrel. For gold, the setup remains two-sided: reduced crude prices and lower yields ease the Fed-inflation channel, but continued shipping constraints keep a geopolitical floor under energy risk and limit the downside in defensive positioning.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around the $81.50 area, while Brent crude was near $87.07. The U.S. dollar index was mixed to firmer late in the session. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.) The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.6% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,448.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,575.00 and then $4,666.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,332.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,262.00 and then $4,205.00. First resistance is seen at $4,448.00 and then at $4,575.00. First support is seen at $4,332.00 and then at $4,262.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $66.53, with a move above that level targeting $71.18 and then $72.08. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $64.47, with deeper downside targets at $63.28 and then $61.94. First resistance is seen at $66.53 and then at $71.18. Next support is seen at $64.47 and then at $63.28.
See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.
