(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are lower in late-afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, after hotter-than-expected PCE inflation lifted Treasury yields, firmed the U.S. dollar and forced profit-taking across precious metals ahead of Nvidia earnings and Friday’s Jackson Hole speech. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,591.70 an ounce, down 1.42%, while spot silver was trading at $68.000, down 0.78% on the session.
North American equity markets finished near flat to slightly lower. The S&P 500 fell 1.58 points, or less than 0.1%, to 7,675.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 113.52 points, or 0.2%, to 53,463.88, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 21.10 points, or 0.1%, to 26,130.20, and the Russell 2000 fell 4.12 points, or 0.1%, to 3,005.90. European markets also finished little changed overall, with the STOXX Europe 600 down 0.01% to 656.41. London’s FTSE 100 fell 0.07% to 10,878.12, Germany’s DAX rose 0.08% to 26,285.96, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.27% to 8,462.39 and Italy’s FTSE MIB added 0.31% to 52,882.99.
The latest positioning shifted against the lower-yields metals trade after the morning data stack. July PCE rose 0.2% on the month and 3.7% from a year earlier, above the 3.6% consensus year-over-year estimate, while core PCE rose 0.2% on the month and 3.3% year-over-year. Second-quarter GDP was unrevised at a 1.5% annualized pace, while July durable-goods orders rose 1.1% to $339.3 billion, above expectations. The data mix left the market less willing to extend the post-buyback bond rally: two-year yields moved above 4.22%, the 10-year yield settled above 4.66%, the dollar index rose and October Fed-hike odds moved above 50%. Gold’s failure to hold above the $4,630 to $4,650 resistance area shows the trade is now more sensitive to inflation surprises than to fiscal-risk hedging alone.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand, but Wednesday’s market impact came through easing supply-risk premium rather than a fresh crude spike. Iran and Oman discussed a temporary arrangement to restore shipping through the strait, and oil extended a three-session decline on expectations that economic pressure, rather than renewed military escalation, could move the waterway closer to reopening. WTI settled at $82.23 a barrel, while Brent fell to $87.84. For gold, the setup remains conflicted: lower crude reduces the inflation impulse and safe-haven urgency tied to Gulf shipping, but the U.S.-Iran standoff is not resolved, leaving geopolitical demand in the background.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $82.23 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $87.84. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,640.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,673.00 and then $4,698.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,573.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,545.00 and then $4,500.00. First resistance is seen at $4,640.00 and then at $4,673.00. First support is seen at $4,573.00 and then at $4,545.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $68.20, with a move above that level targeting $69.50 and then $69.96. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $67.47, with deeper downside targets at $66.41 and then $65.67. First resistance is seen at $68.20 and then at $69.50. Next support is seen at $67.47 and then at $66.41.
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