(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, as a weaker U.S. dollar and safe-haven demand tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict outweighed higher Treasury yields and another surge in crude oil. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,396.40 an ounce, up 0.96%, while spot silver was trading at $67.080, up 2.20% on the session.
North American equity markets closed lower as Brent crude moved back above $100 a barrel and Treasury yields rose. The S&P 500 fell 37.16 points, or 0.5%, to 7,636.36, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 405.41 points, or 0.8%, to 52,380.66, the Nasdaq Composite lost 168.07 points, or 0.6%, to 26,253.34, and the Russell 2000 fell 38.97 points, or 1.3%, to 2,921.23. European markets also finished lower, with the STOXX Europe 600 down 1.41% to 640.41. London’s FTSE 100 fell 1.31% to 10,670.06, Germany’s DAX dropped 1.66% to 25,576.45, France’s CAC 40 lost 1.94% to 8,156.67 and Italy’s FTSE MIB slipped 0.58% to 51,875.24.
The latest positioning remains centered on whether this week’s inflation data can confirm or reverse the market’s roughly 60% probability of a Fed rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting. August PPI is due Thursday, followed by CPI on Friday, with the two reports now carrying more weight after Brent crude returned above $100 and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield near its highest level since October 2023. Gold’s recent support has come from dollar weakness, geopolitical demand and Treasury buyback volatility, but the rate backdrop remains a constraint. A firm PPI or CPI print would validate the hike trade and keep pressure on non-yielding metals, while a softer sequence would give the Waller-led pause argument a cleaner opening.
Precious metals were firm, but the internals were split. Gold gained despite higher yields after the dollar slipped and investors waited for the inflation data. Silver outperformed, helped by the same dollar weakness and a stronger technical tone after buyers reclaimed the $67 area. The market is not ignoring rates; it is treating the currency channel and fiscal-risk hedging as the stronger inputs for now. That leaves Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI as the decisive tests for whether the metals bounce becomes a broader recovery or another lower high under the Fed-rate channel.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. Iran said it attacked 10 vessels near the strait after the U.S. sank five Iranian tankers, while the U.S. denied damage to its warships and Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since July. The fighting has further disrupted flows through a waterway that handled about one-fifth of global oil before the war. For gold, the impact remains conflicted: Hormuz risk and the weaker dollar support safe-haven demand, but higher crude raises inflation risk, lifts Treasury yields and keeps the Fed-hike case alive.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around the mid-$90s a barrel, while Brent crude was above $100. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.8% area. The U.S. dollar index is softer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,422.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,465.00 and then $4,512.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,347.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,290.00 and then $4,263.00. First resistance is seen at $4,422.00 and then at $4,465.00. First support is seen at $4,347.00 and then at $4,290.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $68.17, with a move above that level targeting $71.18 and then $72.93. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $67.25, with deeper downside targets at $63.31 and then $62.56. First resistance is seen at $68.17 and then at $71.18. Next support is seen at $67.25 and then at $63.31.
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