(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are sharply higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Thursday, as a softer U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices and easing Treasury yields helped precious metals extend their rebound after the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in more than 3 years. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,341.20 an ounce, up 1.83%, while spot silver was trading at $65.12, up 3.59% on the session.
North American equity markets closed higher as lower oil prices and easing pressure from the bond market helped stocks recover from Wednesday’s post-Fed selloff. The S&P 500 rose 85.95 points, or 1.1%, to 7,637.76, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 316.14 points, or 0.6%, to 51,778.04, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 439.87 points, or 1.7%, to 26,418.30, and the Russell 2000 rose 15.82 points, or 0.6%, to 2,874.63. European markets also finished higher, with the STOXX Europe 600 up 0.86% to 642.60. London’s FTSE 100 rose 1.19% to 10,816.14, Germany’s DAX gained 0.70% to 25,716.71, France’s CAC 40 added 0.57% to 8,186.93, and Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 0.80% to 52,385.50.
The latest positioning remains defined by the Fed’s Sept. 16 hike, but Thursday’s market action showed the difference between a priced-in hike and a fresh tightening shock. The Fed raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, and officials’ projections still point to at least one more increase this year. That keeps the medium-term rate backdrop restrictive for gold. However, lower oil and a retreat in Treasury yields changed the day’s trade: the 10-year yield fell to 4.93% from 5.01% late Wednesday, while the dollar eased after its Fed-driven jump. Pending home sales rose 0.3%, a small gain that did not alter the broader view that housing remains under pressure from mortgage rates near 7%. For gold, the day’s message is constructive but conditional: the metal can rally when oil and yields ease, but Fed guidance still caps the upside unless inflation pressure fades further.
Precious metals recovered because the rates channel finally gave some relief. Gold rose back above $4,300 and moved toward the $4,354 resistance level from the latest technical setup, while silver reclaimed $64.86 and pushed toward the $65.73 to $66.99 resistance band. The rally is not yet a full technical reset. Gold still needs a sustained break above $4,354 to improve the short-term structure, and silver needs to clear the upper end of the resistance band to confirm that the move is more than a post-Fed short-covering bounce.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand, but Thursday’s market impact came through easing supply fears. Oil fell for a second straight session as Saudi Arabia worked to move additional crude through Oman and investors assessed a faster restoration of East-West Pipeline capacity. WTI settled at $101.91 a barrel, while Brent settled at $104.82. The pullback reduced immediate inflation pressure and helped Treasury yields fall, supporting gold and equities. The conflict remains unresolved, though, and constrained Hormuz flows, Saudi infrastructure risk and Red Sea disruptions keep a geopolitical floor under crude and a background bid under bullion.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $101.91 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $104.82. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near 4.93%. The U.S. dollar index is softer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,354.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,403.00 and then $4,434.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,283.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,256.00 and then $4,215.59. First resistance is seen at $4,354.00 and then at $4,403.00. First support is seen at $4,283.00 and then at $4,256.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $65.73, with a move above that level targeting $66.99 and then $68.17. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $63.44, with deeper downside targets at $62.38 and then $62.06. First resistance is seen at $65.73 and then at $66.99. Next support is seen at $63.44 and then at $62.38.
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