(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, as lower crude oil prices and a modest pullback in Treasury yields helped precious metals recover after the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in three years and signaled that more tightening may still be needed. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,372.30 an ounce, while spot silver was trading near $65.477.
The latest positioning remains dominated by Wednesday’s Fed decision and the market’s read-through on the next move. The Fed raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, and its updated projections pointed to the possibility of another increase toward 4.1%. Chair Kevin Warsh framed the move around still-elevated inflation, resilient domestic demand and a labor market that has not deteriorated enough to force a pause. Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000, the lowest level since mid-July, reinforcing the view that layoffs remain rare. The two-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.72%, the 10-year yield traded near 5.00%, and the dollar softened slightly. For gold, the message is mixed: the rate path remains a headwind, but lower oil and a pullback in yields have allowed a short-covering bounce.
Gold and silver are trading as tactical relief candidates, not confirmed trend reversals. Gold remains below the $4,354 resistance level from the latest technical setup, and a close above $4,403 would be needed to improve the chart. Silver has recovered above $64.40 in the latest FXEmpire framework, but the metal still needs to clear $65.28 to confirm a stronger recovery. The metals complex remains exposed to the next inflation and labor-market prints because Warsh’s Fed has left policy explicitly data-dependent.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. Oil prices fell as markets focused on a faster recovery of Gulf infrastructure and Saudi efforts to restore key pipeline capacity, even though shipping through Hormuz remains constrained and Saudi pipeline disruptions have not been fully resolved. Brent crude fell to about $103.48 a barrel, while U.S. crude traded near $100.65. For gold, the setup remains conflicted: lower oil reduces the immediate inflation impulse and helps ease yields, but unresolved Gulf shipping risk keeps a geopolitical bid in the background.
Global markets were firmer ahead of the U.S. open. S&P 500 futures rose 0.8%, Dow futures gained 0.7%, and Nasdaq futures climbed 1.1% as equities tried to recover from Wednesday’s post-Fed selloff. European markets were also higher, led by banking and technology shares, while Asian markets were mixed. The rebound reflects relief from lower oil and easing yields, but the Fed’s hawkish guidance keeps risk appetite sensitive to any renewed move higher in crude or long-end rates.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $100.65 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $103.48. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near 5.00%. The U.S. dollar index is softer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,354.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,403.00 and then $4,433.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,283.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,256.00 and then $4,217.00. First resistance is seen at $4,354.00 and then at $4,403.00. First support is seen at $4,283.00 and then at $4,256.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $65.28, with a move above that level targeting $65.98 and then $66.74. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $64.40, with deeper downside targets at $63.45 and then $62.57. First resistance is seen at $65.28 and then at $65.98. Next support is seen at $64.40 and then at $63.45.
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