(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Friday, as lower crude oil prices, easing Treasury yields and a softer dollar helped precious metals extend their post-Fed rebound. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,371.33 an ounce, up 0.67%, while spot silver was trading at $66.35, up 1.92% on the session.
The latest positioning remains defined by the market’s reassessment of Wednesday’s Fed hike and the next leg of policy guidance. The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% this week and signaled that another increase remains possible, but the immediate rate shock has faded as oil prices and Treasury yields pull back. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading around 4.93% to 4.94%, down from this week’s 5.04% high, while the dollar has stalled after its post-Fed advance. Thursday’s jobless-claims drop to 196,000 kept the labor market firm enough to preserve the Fed’s tightening bias. For gold, the setup is constructive but not clean: lower yields and oil support the rebound, while Warsh’s Fed has not removed the risk of another hike.
Gold and silver are recovering because the oil-yield-dollar chain that pressured metals earlier in the week is running in reverse. Gold has reclaimed its 10-day moving-average area and is testing the $4,381 breakout level identified in the latest technical work. Silver is the stronger tape, with the metal recovering from the $62.98 support cluster and pressing toward the $66.97 to $68.33 resistance ladder. The rebound is still conditional. If crude stabilizes near current levels and the 10-year yield stays below 5%, metals can extend the recovery. If oil or yields reverse higher, the Fed-hike argument comes back quickly.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. Iran said it struck an oil tanker trying to transit the strait, and vessel traffic remains well below normal even as Saudi Arabia works on export workarounds through Oman and partial restoration of pipeline capacity. Oil is down for a third session, with Brent near $104 and WTI near $101, because the market is pricing marginal progress on alternative routes rather than a resolution of the conflict. For gold, the impact remains conflicted: lower oil eases inflation pressure and supports the metals rebound, but unresolved Hormuz risk keeps a defensive bid under bullion and leaves the inflation channel vulnerable to another escalation headline.
Global markets were mixed ahead of the U.S. open. Asian shares finished mostly higher as lower oil and easing bond-market pressure lifted sentiment, while European benchmarks slipped in early trade. U.S. futures were little changed to modestly firmer after Thursday’s rally, with investors weighing the post-Fed relief move against the possibility that one more rate hike remains on the table. The bond market remains the cross-asset anchor.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $101 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $104. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near 4.93%. The U.S. dollar index is mixed to softer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,381.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,396.15 and then $4,966.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,281.62, with deeper downside targets at $4,270.00 and then $4,235.00. First resistance is seen at $4,381.00 and then at $4,396.15. First support is seen at $4,281.62 and then at $4,270.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $66.97, with a move above that level targeting $68.33 and then $71.18. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $65.32, with deeper downside targets at $62.98 and then $62.31. First resistance is seen at $66.97 and then at $68.33. Next support is seen at $65.32 and then at $62.98.
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