(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Friday, with both metals holding weekly gains as lower oil prices offset part of the pressure from a rebound in Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,382.38 an ounce, up 0.85%, while spot silver was trading at $66.13, up 1.58% on the session.
North American equity markets finished mixed as higher Treasury yields capped the relief rally from Thursday. The S&P 500 rose 12.74 points, or 0.2%, to 7,650.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 95.40 points, or 0.2%, to 51,682.64, the Nasdaq Composite gained 104.25 points, or 0.4%, to 26,522.55, and the Russell 2000 fell 14.23 points, or 0.5%, to 2,860.40. European markets closed lower across the board, with the STOXX Europe 600 down 1.11% to 635.45. London’s FTSE 100 fell 1.45% to 10,659.13, Germany’s DAX lost 1.60% to 25,304.06, France’s CAC 40 declined 1.49% to 8,065.02, Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 1.60% to 51,545.25, and Spain’s IBEX 35 dropped 1.60% to 19,513.80.
The latest positioning remains a tug of war between lower energy prices and a still-hawkish rates market. The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% this week, and futures markets are now pricing a 58% chance of another rate hike in October. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to 5.00% from 4.94% late Thursday, while the two-year yield touched 4.744%, its highest intraday level since July 2024. For gold, the day’s setup is constructive but crowded: lower crude reduces the near-term inflation shock, but sticky Fed-hike pricing and 5% Treasury yields continue to limit the upside.
Precious metals outperformed the rates backdrop because the oil shock eased for a third straight session. Gold tested the $4,400 area and held above the $4,331 pivot zone identified in the latest FXEmpire technical setup, while silver traded above $66 and remained within reach of its $66.70 first resistance level. The metals complex still needs confirmation. Gold needs a sustained break through $4,396.15 and then $4,405.59 to turn the post-Fed rally into a cleaner technical breakout. Silver needs to settle above $66.70 and then clear $68.00 to keep momentum with the bulls.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand, but Friday’s market impact came through a partial unwind of the geopolitical crude premium. Reuters reported that oil fell after China, acting on a Saudi request, asked Iran to limit Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure. Brent settled at $104.87 a barrel, down 0.93%, while WTI settled at $100.30, down 1.58%. The strait is still largely cut off, with four commodities vessels passing through Thursday against a 10-day average of about 16, and Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline damage continues to complicate exports. For gold, the impact remains mixed: lower oil reduces the immediate inflation impulse, but constrained Gulf shipping, Saudi infrastructure risk and the absence of U.S.-Iran peace talks keep a defensive floor under bullion.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $100.30 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $104.87. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near 5.00%. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,396.15 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,405.59 and then $4,466.14. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,331.34, with deeper downside targets at $4,281.62 and then $4,235.17. First resistance is seen at $4,396.15 and then at $4,405.59. First support is seen at $4,331.34 and then at $4,281.62.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $66.70, with a move above that level targeting $68.00 and then $70.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $64.88, with deeper downside targets at $63.60 and then $62.97. First resistance is seen at $66.70 and then at $68.00. Next support is seen at $64.88 and then at $63.60.
See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.
