(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold prices were firmer and spot silver prices were also higher in late U.S. trading Tuesday, as softer U.S. labor-market and consumer-confidence data helped bullion recover from Monday’s selloff, even as long-dated Treasury yields remained near multi-decade highs. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,172.40 an ounce, up 1.42% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $61.270, up 1.23%.
North American equities closed modestly lower as rising long-term yields offset support from softer data and lower oil prices. The S&P 500 fell 12.85 points, or 0.2%, to 7,670.84. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 131.59 points, or 0.3%, to 51,349.92. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 22.84 points, or 0.1%, to 26,797.54, while the Russell 2000 fell 9.99 points, or 0.4%, to 2,807.92.
European equities closed mixed as crude oil, bond yields and sector rotation kept risk appetite uneven. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% to 640.28. Germany’s DAX gained 0.10% to 25,399.21, while Italy’s FTSE MIB edged up 0.09%. France’s CAC 40 fell 0.53% to 8,035.87, and the U.K. FTSE 100 declined 0.45% to 10,636.71.
Market positioning turned less hawkish after August JOLTS job openings fell to 7.079 million from 7.335 million in July, below expectations near 7.225 million, while September consumer confidence dropped to 81.9 from 88.6, the lowest reading since 2014. The softer data and New York Fed President John Williams’ message that there was “no need for urgency” pulled October rate-hike odds down to around 51.5% from 70.9% on Monday, while the 2-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.89%. The relief was only partial: the 10-year Treasury yield still traded near 5.25%, and the 30-year yield held near 5.59%, keeping duration-sensitive equities and non-yielding gold under pressure. The next tests are August personal income and PCE inflation Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, ISM manufacturing Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET and the September employment report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Softer inflation or payroll data would reinforce the gold rebound; firmer prints would revive the higher-yields channel that drove Monday’s metals selloff.
The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains unresolved, but the immediate oil premium faded as crude exports from the Middle East showed signs of recovery. Mediators are circulating an amended interim proposal under which Iran would allow free traffic through the strait and the U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports, though sequencing, oil waivers, frozen assets and nuclear inspections remain points of disagreement. Brent crude settled down 2.6% at $102.59 a barrel, while WTI fell 3.5% to $89.38, as investors weighed recovering regional flows and Saudi export workarounds against the risk that talks fail. Lower crude reduces the inflation impulse supporting yields and the dollar, which helped gold on the session, but the unresolved shipping-risk backdrop keeps a defensive bid under bullion.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading near $89.38 a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $102.59. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.25% area. The U.S. dollar index is near a two-month high but off the session’s strongest levels. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,190.00 to $4,222.11 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,238.00 and then $4,254.44. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,166.49, with deeper downside targets at $4,112.00 and then $4,071.86. First resistance is seen at $4,190.00 and then at $4,222.11. First support is seen at $4,166.49 and then at $4,112.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.727 to $62.180 area, with a move above that zone targeting $62.834 and then $64.080. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $60.310, with deeper downside targets at $59.706 and then $58.770. First resistance is seen at $61.727 and then at $62.180. Next support is seen at $60.310 and then at $59.706.
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