NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Bitcoin has struggled this year, falling more than 40% from peak to trough. Though it’s now down only about 11% since the start of 2026, the cryptocurrency’s latest recovery attempt appears to be unraveling and further losses may be on the way, technical analysis indicates.
Technical analysts use charts of past price action to map out future market moves. To do this, they often rely on patterns. One broad category of pattern they focus on is consolidation, which is when a market moves sideways within a range for a while before picking a direction.
Consolidation patterns have become particularly relevant for bitcoin. After hitting an eight-month high of $87,315.30 in September, the cryptocurrency entered several consolidation patterns. Each time, the pattern ended with a downward move in bitcoin.
In recurring falls such as this, analysts look for levels that will act as support, effectively a floor for prices. Common ways to identify support include previous highs and lows. Moving averages, which strip out price extremes to reveal the underlying trend, are also widely used for support. Another source of support is Fibonacci retracements, which are percentage-based calculations of levels a market often revisits after a move. Support levels can also become targets.
Bitcoin’s recurring slides following periods of consolidation have become a bearish pattern of their own. The cryptocurrency entered its latest consolidation phase last week. A move lower from here would target a Fibonacci retracement at $75,001 that marks the halfway point of the rise from mid-August to late September. That level carries added significance since it coincides roughly with the big round number $75,000. Big round numbers are considered "psychological levels" because markets often fixate on them. After that comes the 200-day moving average at $73,188. A deeper slide to a set of mid-August lows just above $62,000 would be next.
However, there is a ray of hope for bulls. If bitcoin can end the cycle of breakdowns and climb above the 30-day moving average — which is at $81,319, according to data supplied by LSEG — the bearish tide could abate. That would allow it to target October 21 and 22 highs above $84,800 and then possibly make a run at January highs above $90,000.
What the chart shows:
Bitcoin has been sliding since September highs
Further losses would target $75,001, $73,188 and $62,000
A rise above $81,319 could lead it to $84,800 and possibly a run at January highs above $90,000
(Mapping the Market is a daily column written by Reuters journalists. The commentary is based on a technical analysis of financial charts, which helps assess the likelihood of future price moves but does not guarantee the outcome. The column does not constitute investment advice or trading recommendations. )
Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Burton Frierson and Rod Nickel
