Gold rallies as bulls brush off hot U.S. inflation report

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are moderately up and silver slightly higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, in the aftermath of a U.S. inflation report that came in hot. Gold and silver traders may reckon that recent sell offs have already factored into the metals’ prices the fact the Federal Reserve will have to remain hawkish for longer on U.S. monetary policy. April gold was up $6.50 at $1,851.70 and March silver was up $0.118 at $21.69.

Today’s U.S. producer price index report for January came in at up 0.7% month-on-month, which was well above the PPI forecast of up 0.4% from December, following a decline of 0.5% in December from November. The hotter PPI report falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see the Fed continue to raise U.S. interest rates to choke off problematic price inflation.

Global stock markets were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The fact the U.S. dollar index could not rally on today’s hot PPI number also suggests the market place has dialed in the Fed’s future intentions on keeping interest rates higher for longer.


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The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker on a corrective pullback from recent good gains that saw the index hit a five-week high Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.836%.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, April gold futures prices hit a six-week low early on today. Bulls have the very slight overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling downtrend is in place on the daily chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $1,870.90 and then at this week’s high of $1,881.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,836.60 and then at $1,825.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

March silver futures were prices Wednesday hit a 2.5-month low. The silver bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $21.875 and then at this week’s high of $22.085. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $21.385 and then at $21.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 1,205 points at 413.05 cents today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a five-week low on Wednesday. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling price downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated today. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 380.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 420.00 cents and then at 425.00 cents. First support is seen at 405.00 cents and then at 400.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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