Gold rallies as empowered bulls set sights on $2,000

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are sharply up and hit a 2.5-month high in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Silver prices are also sharply up and hit a nine-week high. The charts have recently turned more bullish for both precious metals, which is inviting the technically based speculators to the long side of those markets. A weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report this morning is also supporting ideas the Federal Reserve can take its foot of the gas sooner, regarding its interest-rate-increase cycle. August gold was last up $26.40 at $1,983.00 and September silver was up $0.347 at $25.365.

June U.S. retail sales were reported up 0.2% versus expectations of a rise of 0.5%, month-on-month. This report, along with the U.S. employment report for June released in early July, seem to fall into the sweet spot for those market watchers looking for a soft landing for the U.S. economy. No U.S. and/or global recession setting in would be a scenario for better global demand for metals. Yet, global growth is not so strong as to prompt major central banks to continue tightening their monetary policies and raising interest rates, which would crimp demand for commodities.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday and hit new highs for the year. The U.S. stock index bulls are enjoying price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts, also reflecting the upbeat trader and investor attitudes at present.


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The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are up trading around $75.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.777%.  

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, August gold futures prices hit a 2.5-month high today. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,988.30 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at $1,972.00 and then at today’s low of $1,958.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

September silver futures prices hit a nine-week high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $26.645. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $25.405 and then at $25.85. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $24.815 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 85 points at 383.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 396.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 368.30 cents. First resistance is seen at 390.00 cents and then at the July high of 395.40 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 380.30 cents and then at 374.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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