Gold price hits new all-time high; more upside likely

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are solidly higher and hit another record high overnight, with June Comex gold reaching $2,384.50. Silver prices hit a two-year high overnight, with May Comex futures hitting $28.29. More and more traders of all markets are now climbing aboard the bullish gold and silver train, suggesting still more upside price potential in the near term. Save-haven buying remains a feature in both metals. June gold was last up $22.20 at $2,373.20. May silver was last up $0.308 at $28.115. Gold is presently outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year.

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a quieter U.S. data day again Tuesday but the pace picks up Wednesday. The releases of the March consumer price index and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will come at mid-week. The March CPI is seen coming in at up 3.4%, year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is seen at up 3.7% annually. Thursday comes the U.S. March producer price index and the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $86.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.4%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index, and the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index.

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Technically, the gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at $2,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $2,384.50 and then at $2,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,255.70 and then at this week’s low of $2,321.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

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The silver bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing May futures prices above solid technical resistance at $30.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.40. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $28.29 and then at $28.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $27.865 and then at $27.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll add your email address to my Front Burner list.)

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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