(Kitco News) - With Bitcoin halving just over a day away, is it a good time to buy Bitcoin, and what are the next key price targets given the overall macro trends? Nic Carter, founding partner at Castle Island Ventures and Coin Metrics's co-founder, breaks it down.
Bitcoin's fourth halving, which will reduce the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, is expected to happen around April 19-20.
Bitcoin halving occurs roughly every four years, or once 210,000 blocks have been mined.
Historically, halving events have been bullish for Bitcoin price, but Carter tells Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, that the excitement around the halving is "not warranted."
"Week of [the halving], I would expect Bitcoin to be flat or down as the market realizes that the halving isn't the most bullish event in the world," he said.
Bitcoin miners are the ones to watch in these coming weeks as they adjust to lower reward rates, Carter noted. "I would look at the miners and see how they're doing and if they're teetering on the brink of insolvency. That could potentially add more downside pressure to the price," he said.
For Carter, Bitcoin price is much closer correlated to the demand side, with the spot Bitcoin ETFs taking Bitcoin prices to new record highs above $70,000 in March.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at above $61,000, still up 44.5% year-to-date. Despite the April pullback, Carter expects Bitcoin to end the year significantly higher.
To get his year-end price target, watch the video above.
"As we look forward in the next 2-3 years, I'm very constructive on the price," he said. "Bitcoin thesis has been validated. It got that institutional nod of appeal from the SEC with the ETF approval. We are seeing other jurisdictions approve ETFs — Hong Kong is a fast follow there. Bitcoin has really set itself apart from the rest of the crypto economy."
U.S. debt crisis = more demand for BTC
Carter pointed out that the macroeconomic trends in the U.S. also support Bitcoin, highlighting surging levels of national debt.
"There is a debt crisis on the horizon for the developed nations, particularly the U.S. We will face monetary repression - yield curve control and high-end variable inflation. People will look for safe havens in other asset classes. Bitcoin has now been ratified as an asset class in its own right, with efficient tools to access it for anybody in the U.S."
However, Carter believes that Bitcoin must continue to evolve to stay competitive in the crypto space.
For Bitcoin's next big catalyst, its role in the financial ecosystem, and the needed future innovations, watch the video above.
