(Kitco News) - Gold prices are near steady and silver prices firmer in midday U.S. trading Monday. The precious metals bulls are trying to recover from the very recent surges in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, following last Friday’s stronger U.S. jobs report. August gold was last up $1.20 at $2,326.50. July silver was last up $0.365 at $29.805.
It’s an extra important U.S. data week, highlighted by inflation readings and the FOMC meeting. Barron’s says in a story today: “After Friday’s jobs shocker, it’s hard to imagine a bigger event than Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday for shaping the outlook for investors the rest of this year.” U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index spiked higher after the hotter jobs report Friday morning. The FOMC is not expected to take any new monetary policy action this week. The marketplace is putting odds at around 60% that the Fed will make a rate cut before November.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher but down from its daily high that saw prices hit a four-week high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently at 4.461%.
Technically, August gold bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. A bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $2,406.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $2,308.70. First resistance is seen at $2,335.00 and then at $2,350.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $2,304.20 and then at $2,300.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
July silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $32.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $28.00. First resistance is seen at $30.00 and then at $30.50. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $29.22 and then at $29.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll add your email address to my Front Burner list.)
