(Kitco News) - Gold is expected to have another solid year of gains, but investors should brace for some volatility and temper their upside expectations, according to one market analyst.
In a comment to Kitco News, Kirill Kirilenko, Senior Analyst at CRU, said he expects gold prices to average around $2,580 per ounce this year as markets react to President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies on global trade and taxes.
In his 2025 precious metals outlook, Kirilenko highlighted that gold’s risks are primarily centered on inflation, the USD, economic slowdowns, and geopolitics.
Although Kirilenko remains bullish on gold, he said he doesn’t foresee gold reaching $3,000 per ounce this year, as uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies will eventually subside.
“With a clearer political direction and reduced market volatility, investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold may diminish somewhat,” he said.
Additionally, in his 2025 precious metals outlook, Kirilenko pointed out that Trump’s focus on cryptocurrencies could pose a challenge to gold as an alternative global currency.
While normalizing geopolitical uncertainty could weigh on gold, Kirilenko noted that the precious metal remains well-supported as central banks continue to increase their exposure to gold, diversifying away from the U.S. dollar and protecting themselves against growing debt levels.
Looking beyond gold’s volatility, Kirilenko expressed more optimism for silver, forecasting an average price of $31.35 per ounce for the year.
“Silver could slightly outperform gold this year, driven by an increasingly tight fundamental outlook,” he said.
The British research firm expects silver to remain well-supported as the green energy transition drives demand. However, Kirilenko cautioned that, similar to gold, investors should keep their expectations in check.
“Demand from solar PV – one of the key growth drivers – may have peaked in 2024, as installation growth is now outpaced by thrifting,” he said in his report.
