(Kitco News) - The gold mining sector is seeing renewed consolidation momentum as mid-tier producers look to scale up in an era of strong cash flow and heightened geopolitical risks.
At PDAC 2025, industry experts discussed the latest M&A activity, including Equinox Gold’s $2.6 billion all-stock acquisition of Calibre Mining, a move expected to bring its total production to nearly 950,000 ounces in 2025.
Kitco’s Senior Mining Editor and Anchor Paul Harris said the deal underscores a growing trend in the mid-tier gold sector. “Getting scale is important,” Harris said. “This will give the resulting company about a $7-8 billion market capitalization, which will separate it from the herd.”
Mid-tier consolidation gains momentum
The Equinox-Calibre merger comes amid rising expectations of further M&A activity in the mining sector. Newmont recently completed the divestiture of six mines, fueling speculation that more mergers and acquisitions could follow suit.
“There’s a lot of potential for mergers among these mid-tiers,” Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, told Kitco Mining. “More than among the big ones or big ones buying smaller ones.”
Harris echoed that sentiment, noting that regional consolidations are likely. “If you’re just looking at big Canadian gold, another potential deal would have been Equinox and New Gold,” Harris said. “They’ve got major assets in Ontario and British Columbia.”
While some industry figures view consolidation as necessary, others caution that cost synergies are not always guaranteed. “The Equinox-Calibre deal falls down when it comes to operational synergies,” Harris noted. “They’re geographically separated.” That means that cost savings will mostly come from head office efficiencies rather than mining operations.
U.S. permitting eases, Mexico uncertainty remains
As M&A activity accelerates, jurisdictional risks remain a key factor in dealmaking. According to Day, recent changes in U.S. policy have improved the outlook for mining projects.
“The tone has changed completely,” Day said. “I talked to a company that had been waiting over a year for a permit, and a week after the new administration came in, they got an inbound call from the regional manager saying, ‘We think we can sort this out.’”
Meanwhile, sentiment toward Mexico remains mixed. “There’s clearly a shift in Mexico, and it’s improving,” Day added. “[However, the sentiment among most major companies and most intermediate companies remains negative. That said, the opportunity for a company to go in and start acquiring some good Mexican assets, producing or non-producing, and acquire them relatively cheaply is probably very compelling.”
More deals on the horizon?
With gold prices trading at record highs, industry leaders are weighing whether to allocate capital toward acquisitions, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.
“I’m always in favor of paying down debt when you can,” Day said.
Still, some investors argue that consolidation is inevitable, particularly among junior miners. “Where I really would like to see consolidation is among the juniors,” Day noted. “It would improve efficiency by cutting overhead costs.”
As for which companies could be next in line, Harris pointed to Lundin Gold and Dundee Precious Metals as a potential “super-like” merger. “They’re two of the lowest-cost gold producers in the world,” he said.
Special thanks to our sponsors, GoldMining Inc., UEC & URC for making this coverage possible.
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