(Kitco News) - Gold prices could reach $6,000 an ounce by the end of President Donald Trump’s term, according to Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors and Executive Chairman of Hive Digital Technologies. Holmes told Kitco News that the rally is being driven by a structural reset of the global financial system, de-dollarization, and intensified sovereign gold accumulation, particularly by China.
“I think the goal should be going to $6,000 over the term of President Trump,” Holmes said. “If the tariffs go up 25%, then the dollar has to go down 25%.”
Gold is holding around $3,300 an ounce on Friday after touching a record high of $3,509 earlier this week, before a sharp $200 pullback. JPMorgan is forecasting $4,000 gold within 12 months. Holmes, however, sees more upside if global central banks continue their pace of accumulation.
China's role in gold's rise
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has emerged as the largest sovereign gold buyer for the fifth consecutive month. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, China added more than 27 tonnes to its reserves, bringing its official holdings to over 2,300 tonnes – the highest in the country’s modern history. Unofficial estimates suggest the true figure may be much higher when accounting for state-linked entities like SAFE and commercial bank holdings.
Holmes said this accumulation is part of China’s broader strategy to weaken reliance on the U.S. dollar and strengthen the yuan’s credibility as a global trade currency. “Xi Jinping has escalated military spending substantially… He also has icebreakers and he’s making nuclear icebreakers ’cause he believes the Arctic Sea is his,” Holmes warned, linking the geopolitical tensions to the dollar’s structural decline.
A reset in motion
The Federal Reserve is facing increased political pressure to lower interest rates amid mounting trade tensions, while the IMF has downgraded U.S. GDP growth to just 1.2% for 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week criticized the IMF and World Bank for focusing on social policies rather than economic stabilization, calling for a global monetary “reset.”
Holmes believes this policy pivot will further weaken the dollar. “It’s a reset button that’s going on,” he said. “It’s also a war with the leader of China.” Holmes said that while the BRICS bloc pushes to de-dollarize, “really all that’s happened is the dollar trade’s gone up and the euro has gone down.” But the trend toward monetary realignment is underway.
“I think the dollar is gonna trade down,” Holmes added. “When you get negative real interest rates, you get money printing… it triggers devaluations and gold as an asset class all of a sudden gets that resurgence.”
Gold stocks still lagging
Despite the surge in bullion, Holmes says most investors are still asleep on gold equities. “There’s huge upside in the gold stocks,” he said. “They went down to 1% [of ETF portfolios]. Now it’s climbing its way back, pushing to 2%.”
Newmont Corp., the world’s largest gold miner, reported this week its highest quarterly all-in sustaining costs in nearly a decade at $1,651/oz – but also beat profit expectations due to elevated gold prices. Holmes sees this as a turning point. “Gold stocks are making huge free cash flow… They’re not buying junior gold mining companies. They’re buying back their stock. They’re increasing their dividend.”
Holmes, who pioneered the royalty model at Franco-Nevada, said that if $3,500 gold had existed in those early days, streaming economics would have exploded. “It'd be exponential,” he said. “If we start getting a million dollars a day, all those juniors and mid-caps would light up.”
Bitcoin parallel
Holmes also sees Bitcoin rising alongside gold, driven by generational adoption and a declining dollar. Bitcoin is trading near $93,000, and Holmes says it could reach $250,000 as ETFs gain traction.
“America’s gonna lead the charge at Bitcoin,” he said. “Bitcoin becoming a reserve and buying some more Bitcoin, or functioning to allow America [to] become the most dominant Bitcoin mining nation in the world – that will develop a lot of stranded electricity, that will create a lot of jobs.”
He sees both gold and Bitcoin as vital decentralized hedges. “One is tangible… the other is virtual,” he said. “But both should be part of a diversified portfolio.”
Watch the full Kitco News interview with Frank Holmes embedded above for his exclusive market outlook on gold, Bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and the unfolding monetary reset.