(Kitco News) - Silver is trading near $36.40 an ounce, up roughly 27% year-to-date, and could be on the verge of a significant breakout. “Silver still has more room to move,” said Randy Smallwood, CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals. “We should see $40 before the end of this year.”
Smallwood pointed to a resurgence in investor demand as the next leg higher. “We’re starting to see the silver ETFs pick up. That’s my argument behind silver,” he said.
According to the Silver Institute, global silver demand is expected to hit a new record in 2025, led by industrial use in photovoltaics and electronics, as well as a recovery in jewelry and silverware. At the same time, total supply remains constrained, with mine output expected to fall 2% this year, extending what the Institute says will be the fifth consecutive annual deficit in the silver market.
Gold, meanwhile, remains steady above $3,390 after reaching a record $3,454 earlier in June. According to the European Central Bank’s newly released 2025 Reserve Asset Allocation report, gold now accounts for 19% of global foreign exchange reserves - surpassing the euro for the first time, which fell to 16%. The U.S. dollar remains the largest reserve currency at 58%.
“Gold has become a comfort metal,” Smallwood said. “In times of stress, in times of uncertainty, that’s where people go.”
A Structural Shift Led by Central Banks and Declining Trust in Fiat
Smallwood described a structural shift in global capital flows: “We’re seeing countries starting to look within,” he said. “You’re seeing more and more desire to have that gold re-domiciled back to the home nations.”
According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought a net 290 tonnes of gold in the first five months of 2025, up 14% from the same period last year. China, India, and Turkey remain the top three buyers, as countries diversify away from the dollar and seek politically neutral assets.
“Gold is not a politically influenced commodity,” Smallwood said. “That desire to have an apolitical, unchanging, secure store of value will always push and support gold.”
The Bundesbank and Banca d’Italia have faced renewed pressure from lawmakers to repatriate large portions of their gold held overseas, with Germany’s holdings in the U.S. totaling over 1,200 tonnes as of Q1 2025, according to IMF reserve data.
Smallwood warned that the true risk isn’t geopolitical—it’s monetary. “Wars come and go,” he said, “but the real reason I am so bullish on gold is the U.S. dollar and the weakness behind it.”
Wheaton’s 40% Growth Forecast and Strategic Model
Wheaton Precious Metals, which operates under a royalty and streaming model, is projecting 40% growth in attributable production over the next five years. “We are very much structured to be strong through the cycles,” Smallwood said.
Unlike traditional miners, Wheaton avoids direct operational risk. “We’ve got about $40 million in corporate G&A… we’ve got no debt, we’ve got a strong balance sheet,” he noted. Wheaton currently trades with a market capitalization above $40 billion.
According to company filings, Wheaton has four new assets entering production in 2025, with five additional projects expected to come online by 2028. These include the Santo Domingo copper-gold mine in Chile and the Curraghinalt gold project in Northern Ireland.
“We love investing in single-asset development companies,” Smallwood said. “They can’t raise debt, and we’re the ideal partner.”
Wheaton’s model has also allowed it to grow exposure to strategic metals like copper, without compromising its focus on gold and silver. “Our copper stream from Santo Domingo comes with a gold byproduct. We’re leveraged to prices across the board,” Smallwood said.
Watch the full interview for Randy Smallwood’s unfiltered outlook on silver’s breakout, gold’s rise as a global reserve asset, and how investors can capture upside in a hard asset cycle through smart capital structure.