(Kitco News) - Gold prices are holding support above $3,400 an ounce but continue to struggle to attract renewed safe-haven demand, even as the U.S. housing market shows further signs of weakness.
Total existing-home sales—including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops—fell 2.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units, down from May’s 4.04 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced Wednesday.
The data was weaker than expected; economists had forecast a smaller decline to a 4 million sales pace. Year-over-year, existing-home sales remained unchanged.
Despite the disappointing sales figures, gold prices have been resilient, moving off their session lows. Spot gold last traded at $3,418.10 an ounce, down 0.28% on the day.
According to the NAR report, the housing market continues to face significant headwinds as prospective buyers contend with higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices.
“Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record-high home prices. Home construction continues to lag population growth. This is holding back first-time homebuyers from entering the market. More supply is needed to increase the share of first-time homebuyers in the coming years, even though some markets appear to have a temporary oversupply at the moment,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
The report noted that the median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $435,300, up 2% from a year earlier ($426,900)—a record high for the month and the 24th consecutive year-over-year price increase.
Low housing inventory continues to support higher prices. The supply of homes for sale last month totaled 1.53 million units, down 0.6% from May, representing a 4.7-month supply.
In addition to elevated home prices, the Federal Reserve’s neutral monetary policy stance is keeping mortgage rates high. As of July 17, the 30-year mortgage rate in the United States rose to 6.75%.
While the Fed is set to hold its monetary policy meeting next week, markets do not expect an interest rate cut. Current expectations point to the first potential rate reduction in September.
The central bank has maintained that it is in no rush to cut rates, citing a relatively healthy labor market and persistent inflation risks.
However, Yun noted that interest rate cuts would likely stimulate new activity in the housing sector.
“High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows. If average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters could become first-time homeowners, with increased sales activity from existing homeowners,” Yun said. “Expanding participation in the housing market will increase workforce mobility and drive economic growth. If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales to increase nationwide, supported by strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs.”
