(Kitco News) - Billionaire investor Dr. Thomas Kaplan says the 2025 gold surge is the start of a "long wave" advance powered by central‑bank buying, de‑globalization and a reordering of trust in money - and he forecasts bullion ultimately "into the 10 thousands," with silver capable of a break to "empty space" above $50.
"I think that what we're experiencing is a perfect storm for gold," Kaplan told Kitco Anchor Jeremy Szafron. He added that over decades, gold has behaved as "the best performing currency in the world. It's the best performing commodity of any size," noting the metal multiplied roughly fivefold since he pivoted from energy to gold in 2007, even as oil halved and the dollar strengthened against the euro.
Kaplan framed today's advance as "the continuation of the bull market" that began when gold was near $300 an ounce: "Wave one took us from 250 to 1,800, we had a correction, and now we're embarked upon a third wave… I think that there is reason to believe that gold will indeed go into the 10 thousands." In 2007, he said his "first equilibrium level would be… between three to $5,000," but now that gold has breached $3,000, he is "less reluctant" about higher targets. "If you're a gold bull, get ready for volatility… but the long‑term trajectory… is absolutely explosive."
Central banks and the 'return of gold'
Kaplan said official‑sector accumulation has been vindicated: "Every central banker who ever had the guts or any other anatomical parts to say, 'let's put money into gold,' has been proven to be right." He called gold "the monetary instrument of choice" for the official sector and flagged China's stance that "it's $3,000 an ounce… Insurance companies can buy it. That's a huge statement." With Chinese and Indian demand competing for a scarce asset, he expects "a speculative fever coming out of the East and taking the West along with it."
Spot gold traded near $3,315 an ounce Monday as the dollar rose after a U.S.–EU tariff deal; bullion is up roughly 25% year to date.
Dollar, debt and the next test of credibility
Kaplan rejected the view that gold needs a weak greenback: "It's a myth that you need a weaker dollar for gold to prosper." But he delivered a stark dollar call: "I think that essentially right now the United States has got it wrong on the dollar… I can't say against which other currencies the dollar will weaken, but I do believe that against gold, the dollar will absolutely collapse."
He warned the next market break will reveal whether central banks retain authority: "The next crisis, if the markets don't react with absolute confidence… It's going to get extremely ugly." The world's debt overhang, he said, likely ends with "either much, much stronger inflation, or a deflation which leans to a cleansing out of the financial plumbing."
The comments came as President Donald Trump's administration unveiled a trade pact imposing 15% tariffs on most EU exports, alongside EU pledges to buy $750 billion of U.S. energy and invest $600 billion in the U.S., measures that lifted the dollar and U.S. equities while drawing fierce criticism in Europe.
Jurisdictional risk is now No. 1
Kaplan said resource nationalism has become decisive: "Jurisdictional risk was going to go from maybe number 10… to number one, because after all, a mine is just a hole in the ground surrounded by people who get more and more envious of you… unless you're in a country where the rule of law isn't a novelty." His "sleeping well rule": "If I can go to sleep at night knowing that what I thought I owned the night before, I still own in the morning… I can hold something forever."
That view anchors his focus on the U.S.: "Clearly the United States is where you want to hold generational wealth."
Donlin: 'Transformative' U.S. gold project
Citing the new ownership at Alaska's Donlin Gold, Kaplan said: "Absolutely." the recent U.S. move to classify gold as a critical mineral is a policy tailwind. He called Donlin - now owned 60% by NOVAGOLD and 40% by Paulson Advisers after Barrick's exit - "what will be America's largest single gold mine… A million and a half ounces a year, 1.4 million over the first 10 years," at "twice the grade of the industry average," with open‑pit mining, low‑cost potential and "a mine life measured in decades."
"It will be the largest single producer of gold in the United States," he said, adding the 40‑million‑ounce endowment covers "only… three kilometers of an eight‑kilometer belt" and "95% of Donlin is unexplored." He argued, "There's never been a gold mine that started production with 40 million ounces." With China likely understating reserves, he said, "America is a beneficiary of any re‑monetization of gold… those assets that are in the United States are going to achieve premium valuations."
Kaplan praised his new partner: John Paulson "made a macro bet on gold… and he believes that Donlin is the best way to get the maximum leverage - in a jurisdiction that will allow you to keep it."
Equities: lag today, 'ballistic' tomorrow
The industry's capital‑allocation record has hurt sentiment, Kaplan said, but "that sentiment is going to change rapidly. First of all, you do have companies which [have] shown excellent capital allocation, like Agnico, for example. So they've shown this can be done." In bull markets, he said, investors buy metal first, then majors, then "the highest quality in the development space." He wants NOVAGOLD to be "the go‑to stock," expecting it to "recover all of that lost ground… we were a $12, $15 stock… and [are] going to multiply" with gold now above $3,000.
Silver: 'schizophrenic,' with triple‑digit potential
"Silver is… schizophrenic. It has two personalities, but both of them happen to be quite charming," Kaplan said, citing unmatched conductivity for green‑energy uses and a deep monetary history. "If silver convincingly surpasses $50, then there's really just empty space." He added, "I do believe that silver has the potential to be a bubble… There's nothing irrational about buying bubbles early." Electrum plans to take two private silver companies public next year, each with "hundreds of millions of ounces."
Playbook: own some, buy the dip
Kaplan's allocation message was blunt: "Unreservedly, you must own some gold in your portfolio." He urged staged buying: "Buy some now. Hope for a pullback. Buy another third then… and when you're in the money, buy your next third." Investors should be ready for their "Warren Buffet moment… swing when you see a big fat pitch… and then hope that the investment goes down so that you can really back up the truck." If you can't, he said, "Put yourself into T‑Bills."
Watch: Full exclusive Kitco News interview with Dr. Thomas Kaplan above.