(Kitco News) - Investor and LithiumBank founder Gianni Kovacevic says the energy transition is entering a new phase as electrification accelerates and lithium demand surges, creating opportunities for both miners and major industrial players.
Speaking with Kitco Mining, Kovacevic described it as “a nascent bull market,” citing a roughly 85% rebound in the Lithium and Battery Tech ETF since April. “The trend changed 5%, up 10%. You can definitely see a trend change when you get to a 20% move. That’s the start of a bull market,” he said. “It went to $31.50; it’s now trading at $59. It’s up 85% in five months. That is a bull market.”
He added that the United States is still playing catch-up to China’s rapid electrification. “Over 50% of the cars that are sold in China are electric,” he said. “In the United States, however, they’ve disappointed.” Kovacevic called America’s charging infrastructure an “epic fail,” with the charging network’s reliability and accessibility issues hampering sales for companies such as Ford and GM, but he expects improvements in the next several years.
He pointed to growing government involvement as a sign of lithium’s strategic importance. “This is predominantly a military thing,” he said of the U.S. Department of Energy’s decision to take stakes in MP Materials and Lithium Americas. “They can’t do it overnight, but this is going to take place over a certain number of years.”
Kovacevic said the next phase of lithium development will be shaped by direct lithium extraction (DLE) and the entrance of big energy companies. “This is something that’s been embraced by Rio Tinto, Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Koch Industries,” he said. “It requires eight to ten times less water. You get your lithium almost instantly. The footprint is a postage stamp.” He added that Exxon aims for commercial production in 2027, calling the technology “the future of lithium mining.”
Kovacevic expects sustained growth as the global market doubles over the next four years. “The CAGR growth rate for lithium is around 20%,” he said. “Lithium will become one of the sixth or seventh most important metals,” he said, calling it “unstoppable.”
He added that as production and pricing stabilize, lithium is maturing into a long-term industrial market. “We need to see a stabilized price around 20,000,” he said, noting that only one profitable operation currently exists in Australia.
While DLE and lithium dominated the discussion, Kovacevic also highlighted the shifting dynamics across other critical minerals such as graphite, copper, and uranium, calling the broader electrification drive a “multi-decade pillar of the global economy.”
Watch on the Kitco Mining YouTube channel here: Catch the full, unedited conversation where Gianni Kovacevic breaks down the lithium market’s rebound, explains why it’s “a nascent bull market,” and outlines how the U.S. and China are shaping the future of electrification.