(Kitco News) The mining sector is heading into 2026 with two major tensions reshaping the landscape. The first is a copper industry unable to build the large projects needed for future supply, and the second is growing pressure on the world’s biggest gold producers to consider major structural changes.
That is the view of Neil Adshead, Consultant Analyst at the Commodity Discovery Fund, who joined Kitco Mining’s Digging Deep to outline the forces driving the next phase of the cycle.
Adshead warns that copper remains defined by hesitancy rather than growth, and despite record prices, companies are still unwilling to approve the multibillion-dollar developments required to replace ageing mines. He pointed to long paybacks, capital overruns, and permitting challenges as the main barriers, saying, “We do seem to have this big moat, this sort of decision moat around these projects.” He added that with no major new mines under construction, the industry is approaching a structural shortfall that will intensify through the 2030s.
Geopolitics is adding another layer of constraint, with Adshead highlighting recent examples of Chinese bids for copper developers in the Americas, including SolGold and Solaris Resources, being rejected or discouraged. He said the shift reflects a growing effort by Western governments to secure control over critical mineral supply. “I suspect we’re going to see Chinese bids for assets in the Americas be rebuffed,” he said, predicting more North American capital will enter the region as governments prioritise domestic and allied sourcing of copper.
The gold sector is facing its own crossroads as Elliott Management pushes Barrick to explore a breakup of its global portfolio. Adshead notes that spinning out the company’s low-risk North American assets, including its stake in Nevada Gold Mines and its Four Mile discovery, could create a highly valued producer with strong mine life, scale, and U.S. investor appeal.
But restructuring would also affect Newmont, which shares Nevada Gold Mines through a joint venture and holds one of its most important production centers there. Adshead said the situation has many potential outcomes. “There are so many different permutations here”, as both companies weigh 2026 decisions,” he said.
He added that Barrick’s recent settlement with the government of Mali, which clears the way for the restart of a major mine, suggests the company is already re-evaluating the balance of risk across its global footprint. Investor expectations and leadership changes could lead to further realignment as the company positions itself for the next phase of the gold market.
Adshead said the forces shaping 2026 will come from copper supply constraints, strategic decisions by the gold majors, and an increasingly challenging geopolitical environment for resource ownership. He also pointed to the emergence of corporate bullion buyers, including large private entities that have recently purchased more physical gold than many central banks.
Watch the full interview on the Kitco Mining YouTube channel to hear Neil Adshead’s complete analysis of copper development risk, the Barrick-Newmont dynamic, and the geopolitical forces that will shape mining in the year ahead.