(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are firmer in early U.S. trading Monday, with bargain hunting offset by rising oil prices, elevated Treasury yields and the latest U.S.-Iran tension around the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,552.80 an ounce, up 0.30%, while spot silver was trading at $76.770, up 1.23% on the session.
The macro setup remains difficult for non-yielding metals. Gold is rebounding from a more than six-week low, but the move is capped by inflation-linked pressure from crude oil above $100 a barrel, a firmer dollar backdrop and U.S. yields near the 4.6% area. Fed funds futures are now pricing a meaningful chance of a rate hike by year-end, a sharp shift from the rate-cut bias that supported gold earlier in 2026.
“Gold prices are holding steady just above $4,500 per ounce, close to the lowest level recorded so far this May,” said Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com. “Gold could face further downward pressure in the coming days as the market braces for more escalation in the Middle East.”
The Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant cross-asset risk. Iran’s top security body announced a new Persian Gulf Strait Authority on Monday to manage Hormuz operations, while Tehran continues to seek control and fees over traffic through the chokepoint. The U.S.-Iran peace track remains stalled, and President Donald Trump’s warning that the “clock is ticking” reinforced the market’s assumption that diplomacy has not yet removed the supply-risk premium. The immediate market impact is not a simple haven bid for gold: oil strength is feeding inflation expectations, yields and rate-hike pricing, which has offset safe-haven demand. Brent crude was near $110.05 a barrel and WTI was near $101.77 after earlier highs near $112 and $104, respectively, while global bond markets remain under pressure.
U.S. calendar risk is light on Monday, but the week is not. Traders are watching the May NAHB housing market index at 10 a.m. ET, March net long-term TIC flows at 4 p.m. ET and the Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. The housing data will matter mainly through its read-through to rate-sensitive demand, while the Fed minutes will be scanned for any shift in the inflation-risk discussion after the latest oil shock.
Global markets were defensive overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.99%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.62% and Europe was mixed to lower, with Germany’s DAX down more than 2% earlier in the session. U.S. equity futures were softer as the oil-yield mix weighed against the prior AI-led equity rally.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices trading around $101.77 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $110.05. The U.S. dollar index is holding near 99 after touching a six-week high overnight. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near 4.6%.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,597 to $4,670 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,744.35 and then $4,800. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below the $4,538 to $4,500 support area, with deeper downside targets at $4,495.33 and then $4,401.82. First resistance is seen at $4,597 and then at $4,670. First support is seen at $4,538 and then at $4,500.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $78.00 to $78.71 area, with a move above that zone targeting $80 to $82 and then $89. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $74.94, with deeper downside targets at $73.91 and then $72.00. First resistance is seen at $78.00 and then at $78.71. Next support is seen at $76.50 and then at $74.94.
