(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are solidly lower in late-afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, as renewed U.S.-Iran escalation, a sharp crude-oil rally and hawkish Fed minutes pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,074.70 an ounce, down 0.73%, while spot silver was trading near $58.13, down 2.85% on the session.
Gold’s session range was $4,021.10 to $4,134.90, leaving the metal above the $4,000 area but well below the $4,200 zone that capped the latest rebound. Silver’s session range was $57.11 to $61.15, with the metal extending its reversal after failing to hold above the $60.00 area.
Positioning after Thursday’s June employment report has turned less constructive for metals than it was immediately after the release. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% and April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000, initially supporting gold by reducing the urgency around additional Fed tightening. That trade faded Wednesday as crude oil moved higher, Fed minutes showed officials still focused on persistent inflation and front-end rate expectations repriced toward a higher-for-longer path. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.5812%, the 2-year yield rose to 4.2182% and DXY reached 101.18, its highest level since July 2.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit under active attack risk, not a confirmed chokepoint closure. The latest escalation followed U.S. accusations that Iran struck three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. forces carrying out another round of strikes on Iran after President Donald Trump said the ceasefire was “over.” WTI crude rose 6.45% to $74.93 and Brent rose 6.18% to $78.73, tightening the link between geopolitical risk, energy inflation, yields and the dollar. For gold, the result was not a clean safe-haven bid; the oil-driven inflation and Fed-rate channel dominated, while silver was hit harder as industrial-risk and liquidation pressure widened the gold-silver ratio.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply higher and trading around $74.93 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $78.73. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and trading near 101.18. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.58% area.
Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage after prices fell to a five-day low of $4,022 and failed again near the converging uptrend line and 20-day moving average. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,162.36 to $4,214.34 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day moving average at $4,372.44. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,041.65, with deeper downside targets at $3,942.10 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,162.36 and then at $4,214.34. First support is seen at $4,041.65 and then at $3,942.10.
Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage after prices broke lower and tested the short-term retracement zone at $59.44 to $58.53. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $63.28, with a move above that level targeting the 200-day moving average at $70.06 and then the 50-day moving average at $70.53. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.53, with deeper downside targets at $55.60 and then $50.00. First resistance is seen at $59.44 and then at $63.28. Next support is seen at $58.53 and then at $55.60.
