(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher ahead of the North American market open Tuesday, as short covering lifted precious metals after last week’s selloff while Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices remained firm. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,057.60 an ounce, up 1.26%, while spot silver was trading near $58.92, up 4.67% on the session.
Gold’s early range was $3,998.80 to $4,085.10, leaving the metal back above the $4,000 area and testing resistance near the $4,064 level identified in the latest short-term technical setup. Silver’s early range was $56.00 to $59.37, with the metal rebounding from last week’s lows and moving back into the $58.53 to $59.44 trader-reaction zone.
Positioning after the latest significant U.S. economic data remains less dovish than the early-July inflation prints suggested. Softer CPI and PPI data initially reduced pressure for another near-term Fed move, but stronger retail sales, lower jobless claims, a sharp Philadelphia Fed manufacturing rebound and firmer University of Michigan sentiment have kept traders from pricing a clean policy pivot. Markets still see the July Fed meeting as a likely hold, but September remains live, with the latest pricing showing roughly 64% odds of a hike. The 10-year Treasury yield was near the 4.60% area and DXY was near 101.00, leaving gold supported by short covering and geopolitical risk but capped by the higher-for-longer rate trade.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open but highly stressed transit under active military pressure. The U.S. and Iran are again trading daily strikes around control of the waterway, while Washington says it remains open to diplomacy and Tehran continues to resist loosening its grip over the shipping corridor. Brent crude eased below $90 after mediators pushed for a new ceasefire, while WTI traded near $82, but the risk premium remains elevated because attacks on ships, Houthi threats against Saudi shipping and restricted navigation around Hormuz continue to threaten energy flows. For gold, the impact remains two-sided: geopolitical risk supports defensive demand, but higher oil prices keep inflation risk alive, support yields and limit bullion’s upside.
Traders are watching Fed communication, follow-through in September rate-hike pricing and any new disruption to Hormuz or Red Sea shipping lanes. A sustained move above $4,064 would improve gold’s short-term setup, while a retreat below $4,021 would put the $4,000 demand area back under pressure.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices slightly lower and trading near $82.00 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $88.30. The U.S. dollar index is steady near 101.00. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.60% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls have regained the near-term technical advantage after prices defended the $4,021 to $4,000 demand area and moved back above the 50-period moving average at $4,021.55 and the 100-period moving average at $4,038.93. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,064.08, with a sustained move targeting $4,100.37 and then $4,139.71. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,021.28, with deeper downside targets at $4,000.00 and then $3,990.15. First resistance is seen at $4,064.08 and then at $4,100.37. First support is seen at $4,021.28 and then at $4,000.00.
Spot silver bulls have improved the near-term technical setup after prices recovered above the 50-period moving average at $57.68 and moved back toward descending trendline resistance near $58.00. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.15, with a move above that level targeting $62.75 and then $64.86. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $54.92, with deeper downside targets at $52.67 and then $50.51. First resistance is seen at $59.15 and then at $62.75. Next support is seen at $54.92 and then at $52.67.
