(Kitco News) – Spot gold will trade on either side of $4,500 per ounce at the end of 2026, according to a new survey published by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).
The LBMA surveyed 16 professional analysts in July, and even as gold was trading at its 2026 lows, frequently dipping below $4,000 per ounce during the month, the average of the experts’ year-end price predictions was over 12% higher.
The highest year-end prediction from the survey’s respondents was $5,100 per ounce, representing a gain of an additional 15% from current prices, while the lowest forecast was $3,879, $100 below the 2026 low set in early July.
“The average price during [the first 7 month of 2026] was $4,595.75, some $135 below the average (for the whole year) predicted by 28 professional analysts polled by LBMA in January,” they noted. “The mid-year pulse check provides an update to these figures and reveals that expectations have come into line with the reality of the first seven months.”
The LBMA said the projected full-year average gold price is now $4,604, with forecasted price highs during H2 2026 ranging from $4,872 to $5,800, and the lowest price forecast from respondents coming in at $3,450.
“The analysts’ list of drivers of the gold price - geopolitical issues notably in the Middle East, US inflation, the Federal Reserve’s direction of travel, central bank buying - has not materially altered since the beginning of the year although the emphasis has changed with greater attention being paid to the Fed under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh,” they wrote. “Of the 16 respondents to the survey, five cited Iran as of primary concern, one focused on central banks’ continuing appetite for gold, and the remainder listed the Fed, and its response to US inflation numbers.”
On Jan. 20, one month before the outbreak of the Iran conflict and the sharp rise in oil prices and parallel drop in precious metals, the LBMA published its annual Precious Metals Analyst Survey, which projected gold prices to average $4,741.97 an ounce in 2026.
“Analysts expect the metal to average 38% above last year’s levels, fuelled by expectations of lower U.S. real rates, continued Fed easing and unwavering central-bank diversification away from the dollar,” the LBMA said in its report. “Geopolitical tension continues to cement gold’s role as the world’s premier safe haven.”
However, looking beyond the headline forecast, individual expectations showed a broad range of projections. The report said the forecasting range this year is $3,700, with the most bearish target at $3,450 an ounce and the most bullish target at $7,150 an ounce.
The report added that the forecasting range for gold was up 103% from last year’s price movement and more than 200% higher than analyst expectations at the start of last year.
Julia Du, commodity strategist at ICBC Standard Bank, was the most bullish on gold, calling for the yellow metal to hit $7,150 this year, with an average annual price target of $6,050. She expected prices to hold support at $4,100 an ounce.
“I expect 2026 to be a year of heightened geopolitical risk and strong safe-haven demand, allowing gold to continue the volatile yet upward trend. Central banks are likely to keep adding to reserves, institutional investors will increase portfolio allocations, and retail demand – especially in Latin America – should remain robust. Combined with continued Fed rate cuts, these forces support a bullish bias,” Du said in her analysis.
Robin Bhar, founder of Robin Bhar Metals Consulting, had the most bearish forecast, seeing gold prices averaging around $4,000 an ounce this year. He saw support at $3,500 an ounce, with prices peaking at $5,000 an ounce.
“A perfect storm of factors is providing a strong tailwind to gold prices,” Bhar said in his forecast. “Economic and heightened political uncertainty, including concerns about Fed independence, will ensure gold remains a vital asset to provide a hedge. Geopolitical risks continue to bubble in various hot spots, adding to inflationary risks and continued safe-haven demand for gold. Central bank buying should continue to be an important support factor, as will continued portfolio diversification and speculative money on the long side.”
Alexander Zumpfe, precious metals trader at Heraeus, provided the lowest support level at $3,450 an ounce, but saw prices peaking this year at $5,200 an ounce.
Zumpfe added that while he expected periods of profit-taking and consolidation, the market remained well supported by robust investment demand.
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