(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Friday, as a weaker U.S. dollar, fading September Fed-hike expectations and U.S. fiscal concerns kept buyers in control of the precious-metals breakout. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,594.60 an ounce, up 1.69%, while spot silver was trading at $69.470, up 2.23% on the session.
The latest positioning remains split between softer U.S. growth data and stubborn inflation risk from oil and long-end yields. Last week’s softer CPI, flat headline PPI, weak retail sales and weaker consumer sentiment lowered the market’s appetite to price another September rate hike, even as Thursday’s jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed survey showed no material break in labor or regional manufacturing momentum. Fed minutes released Wednesday showed several officials were prepared to raise rates if inflation fails to cool, but traders are still leaning toward a hold next month. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading near the 4.7% area, the 30-year yield is near the 5.25% area and the U.S. dollar index has slipped below 99.00. The next macro test is the flash U.S. PMI release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Gold and silver remain the standout cross-asset move. Gold has broken above the $4,447 support-turned-breakout level, cleared the $4,500 area and is now testing the $4,595 resistance region. Silver has moved through $66.55 and $68.02, pushing toward the next resistance at $69.48 while trading near its highest level of the week. The move is not simply a lower-yield trade: metals are rallying even with long-end yields elevated, suggesting fiscal-risk hedging, dollar weakness and geopolitical demand are offsetting the negative carry from higher rates.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. U.S.-Iran talks remain stalled, Washington is threatening tougher economic measures against Tehran and commodity-vessel traffic through the strait remains far below normal. Seven commodity ships moved through Hormuz on Thursday, about half the previous day’s tally, while broader reporting still shows traffic running at a fraction of prewar volumes. Brent crude is trading near $93.45 a barrel and WTI near $86.53. For gold, the setup remains supportive but conflicted: constrained Gulf shipping and a weaker dollar support defensive demand, while elevated crude keeps inflation risk alive and limits how far yields can fall.
Global markets were mixed ahead of the U.S. open. U.S. stock-index futures were firmer, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, Dow futures up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.6% after Thursday’s selloff. In Europe, the FTSE 100 slipped 0.1%, France’s CAC 40 was nearly unchanged and Germany’s DAX rose 0.2%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.3%, South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.9%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.2% and the Shanghai Composite added less than 0.1%.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $86.53 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $93.45. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area. The U.S. dollar index is softer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,595.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,671.00 and then $4,778.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,447.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,320.00 and then $4,228.00. First resistance is seen at $4,595.00 and then at $4,671.00. First support is seen at $4,447.00 and then at $4,320.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $69.48, with a move above that level targeting $71.03. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $68.02, with deeper downside targets at $66.55 and then $64.20. First resistance is seen at $69.48 and then at $71.03. Next support is seen at $68.02 and then at $66.55.
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