(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading Tuesday, pressured by a global bond selloff, firmer U.S. dollar and rising oil prices as traders priced a higher probability of a September Fed rate hike. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,370.80 an ounce, down 1.72%, while spot silver was trading at $64.600, down 2.73% on the session.
The latest positioning remains centered on the post-Jackson Hole repricing and this week’s labor-market calendar. Markets were pricing roughly a 66% to 67.5% probability of a September rate hike after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh left the door open to further tightening if inflation fails to return toward the Fed’s 2% target. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.79%, its highest level since January 2025, while the two-year yield moved near 4.35%. The next tests are today’s JOLTS job-openings and ISM manufacturing reports,
Wednesday’s ADP employment report, Thursday’s jobless claims and ISM services data and Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls report. For gold, the risk is that firm labor data would validate the rate repricing and keep real-yield pressure on bullion, while a material labor-market downside surprise would be the clearest path to a relief bounce.
Precious metals are trading as part of a broader rates shock rather than as pure safe-haven assets. Gold fell to its lowest level since Aug. 19, extending Friday’s break below its 200-day average and Monday’s failure to reclaim the $4,452 to $4,487 resistance band. Silver has broken below the $65.64 support area and is now trading below its short-term pivot at $66.87, leaving the metal exposed to deeper support if yields and the dollar remain firm. The price action shows that, for now, higher yields and a stronger dollar are overwhelming the geopolitical bid.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. The U.S. struck Iranian rocket launchers on an island near the strait Sunday, saying the launchers were being prepared to fire mines into the waterway, while the United Arab Emirates said it intercepted an Iranian drone over its waters Monday. Oil prices remain elevated as the war curtails traffic through a waterway that previously handled roughly 20% of global oil shipments, with Brent near $92 a barrel and U.S. crude near $87.67. For gold, the setup remains conflicted: fresh Gulf escalation supports defensive demand, but higher crude feeds inflation risk, reinforces Fed-hike pricing and keeps the yield channel bearish for non-yielding metals.
Global markets were weaker ahead of the U.S. open. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, Dow futures declined 0.8% and Nasdaq futures tumbled 1.0% as the bond selloff hit risk appetite and technology shares. In Europe, Germany’s DAX fell 1.0%, France’s CAC 40 lost 0.4% and Britain’s FTSE 100 declined 1.0%. Asian markets were mostly lower.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $87.67 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $92.00. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near 4.79%. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,396.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,452.00 and then $4,487.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,347.36, with deeper downside targets at $4,308.10 and then $4,247.03. First resistance is seen at $4,396.00 and then at $4,452.00. First support is seen at $4,353.01 and then at $4,347.36.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $65.64, with a move above that level targeting $66.87 and then $67.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $62.98, with deeper downside targets at $61.51 and then $60.835. First resistance is seen at $65.64 and then at $66.87. Next support is seen at $62.98 and then at $61.51.
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