Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are modestly lower and spot silver prices are firmer in early U.S. trading Monday, as elevated Treasury yields and a firmer dollar offset safe-haven demand tied to U.S.-Iran tensions and constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,354.10 an ounce, down 0.52%, while spot silver was trading at $66.410, up 0.43% on the session.
Friday’s data mix gave bullion some fundamental support without changing the policy constraint. Recent economic data point to softer industrial momentum and weaker forward demand signals, but they do not yet overwhelm the Fed’s inflation concern. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday morning that supply shocks may force a “painful trade-off” between employment and inflation, keeping the rates market focused on whether oil, services inflation and AI-related demand are extending the tightening cycle.
The latest market positioning still leans defensive but less one-sided than the price action earlier this month suggested. Managed-money accounts remained net long 133,116 COMEX gold futures contracts in the latest CFTC positioning snapshot, down 1,856 contracts on the week, while managed-money silver positioning stood at a smaller 13,124-contract net long. That leaves gold with a more crowded long base than silver after Friday’s softer U.S. production and leading-index data, but the macro reaction has been dominated by Fed repricing rather than growth concern. The FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% last week, and rate futures have been pricing roughly a 53% probability of another hike in October. That has kept short-end yields firm, supporting the dollar and limiting gold’s ability to convert weaker growth data into a clean upside breakout.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central geopolitical risk premium for gold, oil and tanker markets. Trackable commodity-vessel traffic through the strait fell to 17 ships over the weekend from 37 a week earlier, while flows have not stopped because some Middle East exports are still moving with transponders off. The situation is therefore not a full blockade, but it is not normalized either. Oil is lower this morning as traffic improves and diplomatic channels remain open around the U.N. General Assembly, with Brent near $101.94 a barrel and WTI around $98.27. That move trims the immediate inflation shock and takes some pressure off yields, but the remaining shipping risk leaves gold supported on dips and keeps energy-sensitive inflation expectations in play.
Naeem Aslam, CIO of Zaye Capital Markets, framed the gold setup as a two-way pull between easing U.S.-China trade risk and persistent geopolitical stress tied to Iran, Russia sanctions and security negotiations. His core point is that gold’s safe-haven bid is still intact, but higher yields remain the principal force limiting a cleaner breakout above recent highs. On silver, Aslam said the metal is trading at the intersection of monetary policy and industrial demand, with China’s unchanged one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.00% and 3.50% leaving industrial-demand expectations stable rather than strongly bullish.
The U.S. bond market remains the pressure point. The 10-year Treasury yield has been trading near the 5% area after reaching levels last seen in 2007, and the move is no longer only a Fed story. Total U.S. public debt is around $40.05 trillion, while the latest CBO baseline has debt held by the public rising from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% by 2036. Net interest costs are projected to rise from 3.3% of GDP to 4.6% over the same period. For gold, that creates a mixed signal: fiscal sustainability concerns are a structural argument for hard assets, but the transmission in real time is tighter financial conditions, higher real-yield competition and a higher hurdle for non-yielding bullion.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $98.27 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $101.94. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.0% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,407.27 to $4,530 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,800 and then the $5,000 area. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,341.90, with deeper downside targets at $4,300 and then $4,150. First resistance is seen at $4,407.27 and then at $4,530. First support is seen at $4,341.90 and then at $4,300.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $67.2747 to $67.80 area, with a move above that zone targeting $72.00 and then the prior $72.00 breakout region. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $65.2992, with deeper downside targets at $63.00 and then $60.00. First resistance is seen at $67.2747 and then at $67.80. Next support is seen at $65.2992 and then at $63.00.
