(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices were sharply higher in late U.S. trading Friday, as a softer dollar earlier in the session, a pullback from this week’s Treasury-yield extremes and bargain buying helped metals recover from the midweek selloff. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,194.50 an ounce, up 1.50% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $60.700, up 2.77%.
North American equities closed higher, ending a volatile week with broad gains. The S&P 500 rose 46.18 points, or 0.6%, to 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 423.31 points, or 0.8%, to 51,654.95. The Nasdaq Composite added 172.83 points, or 0.6%, to 27,366.17, while the Russell 2000 rose 12.85 points, or 0.5%, to 2,806.98.
European equities also closed higher as easing strike fears around Iran, firmer metals and lower bond-market stress supported risk appetite. The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.97%. Germany’s DAX rose 1.13% to 25,087.30, the U.K. FTSE 100 advanced 1.06% to 10,552.00, France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.95% to 7,803.33 and Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 0.91% to 49,746.30.
Market positioning remains less hawkish for October but still exposed to December tightening risk. The preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3 from 48.1 in September, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and long-run expectations increased to 3.5%. That mix strengthened the growth-slowdown argument for gold but kept the inflation side of the Fed trade alive. September payrolls rose by only 29,000, unemployment held at 4.2% and July and August payrolls were revised down by a combined 60,000, while traders priced roughly a 19% chance of an October rate hike and an 84% probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase by December. The 10-year Treasury yield finished near 5.24% and the dollar index held near 102.10.
The next major tests are September CPI Wednesday, September PPI Thursday and import and export prices Friday. Softer inflation would support gold by validating the payroll slowdown; a hot CPI or PPI print would keep December hike risk and real-rate pressure in the trade.
The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains a supply-risk overhang, even as near-term strike fears eased. Oil initially fell after President Donald Trump said Washington was having productive discussions with Tehran and would not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, while Iran reviewed a U.S. response to a proposal that would reopen the strait within seven days. The pressure did not clear by the close: threats to shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have increased, the waterway carried about 20% of global oil and fuel shipments before the war, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on 17 vessels tied to Iranian energy flows and Hurricane Isaias shut in more than 1.3 million barrels per day of U.S. Gulf output. Brent crude settled at $104.72 a barrel, up 0.42%, while WTI settled at $91.85, up 0.39%. For gold, the channel remains mixed: lower immediate strike risk trimmed some safe-haven urgency, but high crude, diesel tightness and tanker risk keep inflation expectations, yields and defensive demand inside the metals trade.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading near $91.85 a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $104.72. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.24% area. The U.S. dollar index is steady near 102.10. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,225.81 to $4,233.10 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,272.41 and then $4,319.60. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,183.83, with deeper downside targets at $4,141.86 and then $4,103.24. First resistance is seen at $4,225.81 and then at $4,230.51. First support is seen at $4,183.83 and then at $4,141.86.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.720 to $63.060 area, with a move above that zone targeting $64.270 and then $65.090. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $59.960, with deeper downside targets at $58.940 and then $57.640. First resistance is seen at $61.720 and then at $63.060. Next support is seen at $60.623 and then at $59.960.
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