Price pressure on gold, silver as crude oil slumps, bond yields rise

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are down in early U.S. trading Thursday. Gold prices hit a 15-month low overnight but have rebounded a bit off those lows. A sharp drop in crude oil prices today and rising U.S. Treasury bond yields are bearish outside elements helping to push precious metals prices down. August gold futures were last down $10.20 at $1,689.60. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.448 at $18.21 an ounce.

The European Central Bank’s conclusion of its regular monetary policy meeting today saw the ECB raise its main interest rate by a more aggressive 0.5%. It was the first rate hike for the ECB in 11 years. The Euro currency rallied and the U.S. dollar index sold off on the news, which added a bit of a lift to gold and silver prices. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by at least 0.75% at next week’s FOMC meeting.

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session beings. The U.S. stock index bulls are having a good week and have restarted near-term price uptrends on the daily charts.

In other overnight news, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has tendered his resignation for the second time as his government is close to collapsing. Italian government bond yields rose, with the 10-year at 3.6%

Russia has restarted natural gas flowing through the Nord Stream pipeline into Europe. That helped to pressure crude oil prices.


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The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices sharply down and trading around $95.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.081%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and leading economic indicators.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, the August gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The recent “collapse in volatility” on the daily bar chart (whereby at least three price bars in a row are significantly smaller than previous price bars) suggested a bigger price move was coming, and we got it late Wednesday and today. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,694.90 and then at $1,700.00. First support is seen at $1,673.30 and then at $1,665.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at $18.50 and then at the overnight high of $18.645. Next support is seen at $18.00 and then at $17.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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