(Kitco News) - According to data released by the Cobalt Institute ("CI") last week, new global cobalt demand from electric vehicles was fighting against broader automotive headwinds, while cobalt supply is expected to increase in 2022.
CI said that the global automotive market is facing rising pressures, including ongoing semiconductor shortages, the war in Ukraine, inflation and COVID-19 lockdowns in China (the world's leading consumer of cobalt), as well as supply chain constraints.
According to a report, demand for cobalt from electric vehicles (EV) has maintained momentum in Q2 2022, but headwinds are slowing growth rates. Chinese EV sales rose 7% q/q despite COVID-19 lockdown measures, whereas Western European EV sales fell -1%.
On the supply side, mined cobalt production growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the world's largest cobalt miner, is forecast to be even stronger than previously expected, with anticipated 26% production growth in 2022 y/y vs. 2021 production growth of 12% y/y.
With 120,000 tonnes of cobalt produced in 2021, the Democratic Republic of the Congo was the world's largest source of mined cobalt, supplying over 70% of world cobalt mine production.
To add more, global cobalt metal output is expected to rebound, with forecast 2022 production up 38% y/y, compared to 35% y/y decline in 2021.
As for cobalt prices, CI said that Chinese metal prices fell steadily for most of Q2 2022 due to weakness from extended COVID-19 lockdowns in Shanghai. By end of June, Chinese metal prices were ~$25 /lb, $10 below the European level.
CI also noted that European cobalt prices are lagging China and remain significantly higher, adding that prices are expected to adjust down towards Chinese prices.
"This is likely to continue until there is a clear stabilization or consistent recovery in Chinese end-use demand," CI said.
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