Gold price lower as Fed Chair Powell on deck

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
Published
Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are lower in early U.S. trading Friday. The marketplace is highly anticipating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Friday morning (10:00 a.m. Eastern time) speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, which began Thursday. Past Jackson Hole Fed meetings have significantly moved markets. Gold and silver traders are expecting from Powell comments that are bearish for metals markets: a hawkish lean for U.S. monetary policy and on the Fed's fight against inflation. October gold futures were last down $14.80 at $1,747.00. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.025 at $19.09 an ounce.

A hawkish U.S. monetary policy stance by Powell can be extrapolated into weaker U.S./global economic growth that would mean less demand for metals. Also, hawkish rhetoric from Powell should be bullish for the U.S. dollar and for rising bond yields. However, many traders can correctly argue that Powell and other Fed officials have laid out their aggressive monetary policy tightening in recent weeks, and that should be "baked into the cake" for markets. It could be that the precious metals post a "relief rally" if Powell in his remarks today does not get any more aggressive on Fed tightening.

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.


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The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $93.70 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.078%. Bond yields have been on the rise recently.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays and the closely watched PCE price index component of the report. Also out today is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and advance economic indicators.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, the October gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,762.30 and then at this week's high of $1,769.30. First support is seen at $1,740.00 and then at this week's low of $1,730.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $18.01. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $19.26 and then at $19.50. Next support is seen at $19.00 and then at this week's low of $18.605. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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