(Kitco News) - Fidelity Investments' digital asset arm has released a new research piece entitled “The Rising Dollar and Bitcoin,” in which the firm's crypto subsidiary looks at the future of Bitcoin in relation to fiat currencies.
The report evaluated the prospect of Bitcoin acting as portfolio insurance in the midst of a U.S. dollar that has strengthened compared to other major currencies, “with the dollar index rising approximately 17% year-to-date.”
According to Fidelity Digital Assets, “Bitcoin may soon stand in stark contrast to the path that the rest of the world and fiat currencies may take – namely the path of increased supply, additional currency creation, and central bank balance sheet expansion.”
Bitcoin’s issuance and total maximum supply are what truly sets it apart in a world where central banks can print infinite amounts of money.
The report highlighted the current situation in the United Kingdom where the government is attempting to revive its faltering economy. The country’s central bank is tightening to combat decades-high inflation while at the same time “encountering market stress that requires more liquidity to tamp down financial volatility and keep it from spreading.”
“Some U.K. investors or traders may have already noticed Bitcoin’s potential to opt out of the current situation as trading volumes between the British pound and Bitcoin spiked to a record high,” the report suggested.
The main point that the research was attempting to convey is that the “strengthening U.S. dollar is wreaking havoc among other countries and may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to soon reverse its tightening monetary actions.”
It also indicated that further monetary debasement is likely to be required in order to ease the high debt load facing many developed economies, while the recent developments in the U.K. have revealed the inherent counterparty and liability risks present in the system.
Due to these factors, “monetary intervention and doses of liquidity features that are not likely to go away any time soon,” Fidelity cautioned.
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To further complicate matters, Fidelity noted that while the U.S. dollar remains strong relative to other fiat currencies, “the reality of the U.S. financial system is that it is in a similar position as the U.K. in the long run.” With a debt-to-GDP ratio north of 120%, “it is unlikely to be equipped to handle higher real interest rates for a sustained period of time if the country aims to fulfill its current debt obligations.”
With the total U.S debt now over $30 trillion, in addition to more than $170 trillion in unfunded liabilities, interest payments have already risen to an annual rate of “approximately $650 billion, as of Q2 2022.”
“Comparatively, Bitcoin remains one of the few assets that does not correspond to another person’s liability, has no counterparty risk, and has a supply schedule that cannot be changed. Whether those properties begin to look more attractive is ultimately up to investors and the market to decide,” the paper concluded.
